METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 31: Locked and Loaded
Atlantic City, USA
4 May 2001
Welterweight
VS
42%
Carter
58%
Serra
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:51
★ Official Result
Shonie CarterwinsKO/TKOR3 · 4:51
def. Matt Serra · UFC 31: Locked and Loaded
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Serra
→
Actual result
Carter wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Carter at 42% vs Serra at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Serra has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Carter has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Carter's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Serra has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CarterSerra
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Carter
Serra
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'6"
Reach
68"
54
Age
+52
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Carter
Serra
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.2
18.2
41.0
Performance Avg
53.3
35
Quality of Victory
56
25
Momentum Score
52
Carter
Serra
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
0.7
40%
Strike Accuracy
37%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
3
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance1
2Clinch0
1Ground0
Carter
Serra
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Carter
Serra
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
46
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/82 fights
Chin rating based on
14/18 fights
Carter
Serra
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
52
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Carter
Serra
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
43%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Carter
Serra
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
CarterSerra
Strike Zones
Carter
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedSerra
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Carter targets the body (50% of attacks) — Serra absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Serra targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Carter absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Carter
RND
Serra
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Carter · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Serra · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Carter · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Marcus DavisRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sanchez vs Riggs · 2006-12
L · KO · R1
Nate QuarryRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 53: Heavy Hitters · 2005-06
L · KO · R2
Pat MiletichRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 32: Showdown in the Meadowlands · 2001-06
W · KO · R3
Matt SerraRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 31: Locked and Loaded · 2001-05
W · Dec · R2
Adrian SerranoRating 4.2Decision
UFC 26: Ultimate Field Of Dreams · 2000-06
Serra · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Chris LytleRating 5.5Decision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · KO · R1
Frank TriggRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · Dec · R3
Matt HughesRating 5.5Decision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05
L · KO · R2
Georges St-PierreRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2 · 2008-04
W · KO · R1
Georges St-PierreRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 69: Shootout · 2007-04