UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
6 Aug 2022
Heavyweight
VS
46%
Sakai
54%
Spivac
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:42
AS
Augusto Sakai
16 – 5
6'3"77" reachOrthodox35 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 39
Serghei
Serghei Spivac
"Polar Bear"
18 – 6
Well-Rounded31 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'3"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Spivac

This is a genuine toss-up — Sakai at 46% vs Spivac at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Spivac throws more volume but Sakai connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Sakai's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Spivac has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Sakai
Spivac
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
77"
Reach
+78"
35
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sakai
Spivac
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.9
45.1
44.4
Performance Avg
52.0
37
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
33
Sakai
Spivac
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.8
50%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
23
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance6
0Clinch0
0Ground17
Sakai
Spivac
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sakai
Spivac
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
8
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
15/24 fights
Sakai
Spivac
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
33
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Sakai
Spivac
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sakai
Spivac
Striking5.1 / 4.5Volume5.9 / 3.9Grappling1.4 / 3.5Wrestling1.0 / 2.4Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure4.5 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
Sakai
Strike Zones
Spivac
Sakai
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD0BODY0LEGS23 absorbed
Spivac
Attacking
23HEAD0BODY0LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sakai targets the body (100% of attacks) — Spivac absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Spivac targets the head (100% of attacks) — Sakai absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sakai
RND
Spivac
0/0R00/0

Sakai · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.5W5.2W5.4W4.5W4.0L2.6L3.2L3.3L4.8W2018-092020-052021-122023-02
WinLossTrend

Spivac · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0101.5L5.7W5.9L4.5W5.2W4.5W3.9L5.0W5.4W6.2W3.9L5.4W3.3L7.0L5.5W2019-052021-022022-082025-012026-02
WinLossTrend

Sakai · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
L · KO · R2
Serghei SpivacRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · KO · R2
Tai TuivasaRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
L · KO · R1
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
L · KO · R5
Alistair OvereemRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · 2020-09

Spivac · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Ante DelijaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Ciryl GaneRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · 2023-09

News & Media

Augusto Sakai · Serghei Spivac
← Back to fights