UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Kansas City, USA
15 Apr 2017
Middleweight
VS
27%
Souza
73%
Whittaker
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:28
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Whittaker
Whittaker is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Souza has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Souza's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Whittaker has a chin rating of 16 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Souza
Whittaker
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
72"
Reach
+73"
46
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Souza
Whittaker
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.5
53.4
54.6
Performance Avg
56.0
53
Quality of Victory
46
56
Momentum Score
71
Souza
Whittaker
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.4
56%
Strike Accuracy
44%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
32
2
Body
4
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance23
0Clinch0
0Ground14
Souza
Whittaker
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Souza
Whittaker
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
16
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/36 fights
Chin rating based on
25/36 fights
Souza
Whittaker
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
71
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Souza
Whittaker
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
35%
4
KO / TKO Wins
6
4
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Souza
Whittaker
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
SouzaWhittaker
Strike Zones
Souza
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
37 absorbedWhittaker
Attacking
37 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Souza targets the head (50% of attacks) — Whittaker absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Whittaker targets the head (86% of attacks) — Souza absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Souza
RND
Whittaker
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Souza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Whittaker · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Souza · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Andre MunizRating 2.4Submission
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · KO · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · 2020-12
L · Dec · R5
Jan BlachowiczRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack HermanssonRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
W · KO · R3
Chris WeidmanRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
Whittaker · Last 5
Upcoming
Nikita KrylovUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Reinier de RidderRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R1
Khamzat ChimaevRating 3.4Submission
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Paulo CostaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02