UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant
Las Vegas, USA
10 Dec 2015
Lightweight
VS
46%
Miller
54%
Chiesa
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:57
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Chiesa
This is a genuine toss-up — Miller at 46% vs Chiesa at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Miller throws more volume but Chiesa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Miller's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Chiesa has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Miller
Chiesa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+6'1"
71"
Reach
+75"
42
Age
+38
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Miller
Chiesa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.5
50.7
51.5
Performance Avg
53.3
45
Quality of Victory
43
28
Momentum Score
50
Miller
Chiesa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.7
41%
Strike Accuracy
41%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
8
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground7
Miller
Chiesa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.8
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Miller
Chiesa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
36
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
47/58 fights
Chin rating based on
22/27 fights
Miller
Chiesa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
50
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Miller
Chiesa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
60%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
14
Submission Wins
9
8
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Miller
Chiesa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
4.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
MillerChiesa
Strike Zones
Miller
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedChiesa
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Miller targets the head (67% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Chiesa targets the head (89% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Miller
RND
Chiesa
0/0R00/0
Miller · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Chiesa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Miller · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jared GordonRating 5.4Submission
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W · Sub · R1
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