UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick
Lincoln, USA
25 Aug 2018
Lightweight
VS
77%
Dober
23%
Tuck
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Drew
Drew Dober
29 – 15
5'8"70" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 60
JT
Jon Tuck
"Super Saiyan"
10 – 5
Well-Rounded41 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'11"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dober

Dober is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Dober has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Dober's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Dober
Tuck
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+73"
37+
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Dober
Tuck
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.9
18.4
53.2
Performance Avg
45.2
50
Quality of Victory
46
100
Momentum Score
54
Dober
Tuck
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.2
43%
Strike Accuracy
39%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
11 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
3
1
Body
3
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
7Distance8
0Clinch1
12Ground0
Dober
Tuck
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.6
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dober
Tuck
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
90
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/44 fights
Chin rating based on
9/15 fights
Dober
Tuck
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
54
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Dober
Tuck
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
75%
11
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dober
Tuck
Striking8.5 / 3.4Volume2.8 / 2.9Grappling1.0 / 4.6Wrestling0.7 / 3.2Submission0.7 / 5.0Pressure7.3 / 6.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Dober
Strike Zones
Tuck
Dober
Attacking
18HEAD1BODY0LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD3BODY3LEGS9 absorbed
Tuck
Attacking
3HEAD3BODY3LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD1BODY0LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dober targets the head (95% of attacks) — Tuck absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Tuck targets the head (33% of attacks) — Dober absorbs 33% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dober
RND
Tuck
0/0R00/0

Dober · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L5.5L5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W2.8L5.0W4.5W4.5W3.7L5.0W5.7W6.1W6.0L5.5L6.5W5.5W6.0W1.7L5.1W6.3L7.1L3.6L5.5W5.3W2013-112017-072021-032024-022026-03
WinLossTrend

Tuck · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W5.5L5.5W5.5L5.0W5.6L5.5L5.0W6.7L2012-112014-092016-112018-08
WinLossTrend

Dober · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · KO · R3
Kyle PrepolecRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · R3
Jean SilvaRating 7.1
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Renato MoicanoRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02

Tuck · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Drew DoberRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · Sub · R1
Takanori GomiRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Damien BrownRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Josh EmmettRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · Sub · R1
Tae Hyun BangRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber · 2015-05

News & Media

Drew Dober · Jon Tuck
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