UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2
Charlotte, USA
27 Jan 2018
Lightweight
VS
28%
Koch
72%
Green
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Green
Green is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Green has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Koch's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Green has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Koch
Green
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
71"
Reach
71"
37+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Koch
Green
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.2
49.0
46.3
Performance Avg
45.9
44
Quality of Victory
38
84
Momentum Score
85
Koch
Green
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
3.2
42%
Strike Accuracy
55%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
28
0
Body
18
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
9Distance22
0Clinch9
0Ground18
Koch
Green
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Koch
Green
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/22 fights
Chin rating based on
30/52 fights
Koch
Green
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
85
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Koch
Green
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
44%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Koch
Green
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.9
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
KochGreen
Strike Zones
Koch
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
49 absorbedGreen
Attacking
49 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Koch targets the head (100% of attacks) — Green absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Green targets the head (57% of attacks) — Koch absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Koch
RND
Green
0/0R00/0
Koch · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Green · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Koch · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Kyle StewartRating 4.5Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Shane CampbellRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
L · KO · R1
Daron CruickshankRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
Green · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jeremy StephensRating 5.5Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
Daniel ZellhuberRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Lance Gibson Jr.Rating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
L · KO · R1
Mauricio RuffyRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Sub · R1
Paddy PimblettRating 3.2Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07