UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
Las Vegas, USA
6 Mar 2021
Light Heavyweight
VS
46%
Santos
54%
Rakic
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TS
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
22 – 11
6'2"76" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 32
Aleksandar
Aleksandar Rakic
"Rocket"
14 – 6
Well-Rounded4-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'4"
CFR 38

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rakic

This is a genuine toss-up — Santos at 46% vs Rakic at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Santos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Santos has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Santos's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rakic has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Santos
Rakic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'4"
76"
Reach
+78"
42
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Santos
Rakic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.2
37.5
54.0
Performance Avg
43.8
51
Quality of Victory
37
91
Momentum Score
25
Santos
Rakic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.5
51%
Strike Accuracy
50%
9.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
11 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
9
Body
2
8
Leg
3
RangeRange
15Distance7
8Clinch0
0Ground0
Santos
Rakic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Santos
Rakic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
30
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/33 fights
Chin rating based on
11/20 fights
Santos
Rakic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
25
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Santos
Rakic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
79%
33%
11
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Santos
Rakic
Striking9.0 / 4.4Volume2.9 / 6.4Grappling0.5 / 1.6Wrestling0.4 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.3 / 4.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.0
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.4
Santos
Strike Zones
Rakic
Santos
Attacking
6HEAD9BODY8LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY3LEGS7 absorbed
Rakic
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY3LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD9BODY8LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the body (39% of attacks) — Rakic absorbs 39% of strikes there
🎯Rakic targets the legs (43% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 43% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Santos
RND
Rakic
0/0R00/0

Santos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0101.5L5.0W5.5L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.0W1.5L1.5L5.2W6.3W5.9W6.4W1.5L5.1W6.0W5.2W5.8W7.3L3.1L5.6L5.3W7.0L4.6L2013-082016-052018-022019-072022-08
WinLossTrend

Rakic · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W6.3L5.7W4.5W3.3L4.4L7.0L3.4L2017-092019-062021-032024-102025-10
WinLossTrend

Santos · Last 5

L · KO · R4
Jamahal HillRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Dec · R5
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
W · Dec · R5
Johnny WalkerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Dec · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Glover TeixeiraRating 3.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira · 2020-11

Rakic · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Azamat MurzakanovRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Jiri ProchazkaRating 4.4
KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
W · Dec · R3
Thiago SantosRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03

News & Media

Thiago Santos · Aleksandar Rakic
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