UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Houston, USA
21 Feb 2026
Heavyweight
VS
45%
Spivac
55%
Delija
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Delija
This is a genuine toss-up — Spivac at 45% vs Delija at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Delija has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Delija throws more volume but Spivac connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Spivac's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Spivac
Delija
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
78"
Reach
78"
31+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Spivac
Delija
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.1
54.9
52.0
Performance Avg
49.3
47
Quality of Victory
60
33
Momentum Score
43
Spivac
Delija
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
2.3
50%
Strike Accuracy
39%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
14
1
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
27Distance16
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Spivac
Delija
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Spivac
Delija
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/24 fights
Chin rating based on
3/34 fights
Spivac
Delija
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
43
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Spivac
Delija
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Spivac
Delija
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
SpivacDelija
Strike Zones
Spivac
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedDelija
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Spivac targets the head (93% of attacks) — Delija absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Delija targets the head (88% of attacks) — Spivac absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Spivac
RND
Delija
0/0R00/0
Spivac · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Delija · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Spivac · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Ante DelijaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Ciryl GaneRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · 2023-09
Delija · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Serghei SpivacRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 3KO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4KO/TKO
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