UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis
Seattle, USA
26 Mar 2011
Lightweight
VS
46%
Lowe
54%
Lentz
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:24
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lentz
This is a genuine toss-up — Lowe at 46% vs Lentz at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Lentz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Lentz throws more volume but Lowe connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Lowe's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lentz has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lowe
Lentz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
Reach
68"
45
Age
+41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Lowe
Lentz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.7
16.0
35.0
Performance Avg
45.3
25
Quality of Victory
35
61
Momentum Score
53
Lowe
Lentz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.1
52%
Strike Accuracy
44%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
11
1
Body
2
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
11Distance18
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Lowe
Lentz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lowe
Lentz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
52
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/23 fights
Chin rating based on
25/42 fights
Lowe
Lentz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
53
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Lowe
Lentz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
36%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lowe
Lentz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.4
LoweLentz
Strike Zones
Lowe
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedLentz
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lowe targets the head (92% of attacks) — Lentz absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Lentz targets the head (61% of attacks) — Lowe absorbs 61% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lowe
RND
Lentz
0/0R00/0
Lowe · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Lentz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Lowe · Last 4
L · Sub · R3
Nik LentzRating 4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · 2011-03
W · Dec · R3
Willamy FreireRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 2 · 2011-01
W · Dec · R3
Steve LopezRating 4.5Decision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
L · KO · R1
Melvin GuillardRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
Lentz · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · KO · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R2
Gray MaynardRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10