METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
Newark, USA
27 Apr 2013
Heavyweight
VS
47%
Nelson
53%
Kongo
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:03
★ Official Result
Roy NelsonwinsKO/TKOR1 · 2:03
def. Cheick Kongo · UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Kongo
→
Actual result
Nelson wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 47% vs Kongo at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Nelson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kongo has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NelsonKongo
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nelson
Kongo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
73"
Reach
+82"
50+
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Kongo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
20.9
55.6
Performance Avg
51.8
61
Quality of Victory
43
26
Momentum Score
100
Nelson
Kongo
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.8
/ 10
6.8
/ 10
7.6
Style: Pressure
5.8
1.8
Style: Volume
4.2
8 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
6 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
0
Body
2
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch2
1Ground0
Nelson
Kongo
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.3
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
0.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nelson
Kongo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
38
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/36 fights
Chin rating based on
18/37 fights
Nelson
Kongo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
100
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Nelson
Kongo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
55%
8
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Kongo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
NelsonKongo
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedKongo
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Kongo absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Kongo targets the body (50% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Kongo
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovDecision
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W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
Kongo · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Roy NelsonKO/TKO
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
W · Dec · R3
Shawn JordanDecision
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
L · KO · R1
Mark HuntKO/TKO
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson · 2012-02
W · Dec · R3
Matt MitrioneDecision
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · 2011-10
W · KO · R1
Pat BarryKO/TKO
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06