UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Toronto, Canada
10 Dec 2016
Lightweight
VS
24%
Aubin-Mercier
76%
Dober
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:57
OA
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
11 – 5
5'9"70" reachSouthpaw37 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
Drew
Drew Dober
29 – 15
Knockout Artist2-fight win streak37 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'8"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dober

Dober is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Dober throws more volume but Aubin-Mercier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Dober has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Aubin-Mercier
Dober
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
70"
Reach
70"
37
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Aubin-Mercier
Dober
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
59.9
49.0
Performance Avg
53.2
43
Quality of Victory
50
61
Momentum Score
100
Aubin-Mercier
Dober
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.9
53%
Strike Accuracy
43%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
11 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
1
Body
9
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground9
Aubin-Mercier
Dober
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aubin-Mercier
Dober
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
4
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/16 fights
Chin rating based on
27/44 fights
Aubin-Mercier
Dober
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R3
L · Dec · R3
Aubin-Mercier
Dober
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
80%
1
KO / TKO Wins
11
4
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aubin-Mercier
Dober
Striking2.6 / 8.5Volume3.5 / 2.8Grappling5.3 / 1.0Wrestling3.7 / 0.7Submission5.7 / 0.7Pressure6.8 / 7.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.5
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
5.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
Aubin-Mercier
Strike Zones
Dober
Aubin-Mercier
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD9BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Dober
Attacking
1HEAD9BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aubin-Mercier targets the head (50% of attacks) — Dober absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Dober targets the body (90% of attacks) — Aubin-Mercier absorbs 90% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aubin-Mercier
RND
Dober
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Aubin-Mercier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.5L5.2W5.5W4.5W6.5L5.5W6.5W4.5W5.0W6.4L5.7L7.1L2014-042015-082016-122018-072019-07
WinLossTrend

Dober · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L5.5L5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W2.8L5.0W4.5W4.5W3.7L5.0W5.7W6.1W6.0L5.5L6.5W5.5W6.0W1.7L5.1W6.3L7.1L3.6L5.5W5.3W2013-112017-072021-032024-022026-03
WinLossTrend

Aubin-Mercier · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R1
Evan DunhamRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09

Dober · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · KO · R3
Kyle PrepolecRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · R3
Jean SilvaRating 7.1
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Renato MoicanoRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02

News & Media

Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Drew Dober
← Back to fights