METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Toronto, Canada
10 Dec 2016
Lightweight
VS
24%
Aubin-Mercier
76%
Dober
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:57
OA
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
11 – 5
5'9"70" reachSouthpaw37 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
★ Official Result
Olivier Aubin-MercierwinsSubmissionR2 · 2:57
def. Drew Dober · UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Dober
→
Actual result
Aubin-Mercier wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Dober is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Dober throws more volume but Aubin-Mercier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Dober has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
Aubin-MercierDober
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Aubin-Mercier
Dober
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
70"
Reach
70"
37
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Aubin-Mercier
Dober
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
59.9
49.0
Performance Avg
53.2
43
Quality of Victory
50
61
Momentum Score
100
Aubin-Mercier
Dober
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.6
1.9
53%
Strike Accuracy
43%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
11 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
1
Body
9
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground9
Aubin-Mercier
Dober
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aubin-Mercier
Dober
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
4
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/16 fights
Chin rating based on
27/44 fights
Aubin-Mercier
Dober
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R3
L · Dec · R3
Aubin-Mercier
Dober
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
80%
1
KO / TKO Wins
11
4
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aubin-Mercier
Dober
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.5
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
5.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
Aubin-MercierDober
Strike Zones
Aubin-Mercier
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedDober
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aubin-Mercier targets the head (50% of attacks) — Dober absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Dober targets the body (90% of attacks) — Aubin-Mercier absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aubin-Mercier
RND
Dober
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Aubin-Mercier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Dober · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Aubin-Mercier · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R1
Evan DunhamRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
Dober · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · KO · R3
Kyle PrepolecRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · R3
Jean SilvaRating 7.1UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Renato MoicanoRating 6.3Decision
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