UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov
Las Vegas, USA
1 Jul 2023
Welterweight
VS
38%
Griffin
62%
Morales
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Morales
Morales holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Griffin has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Morales has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Morales has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Griffin's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Griffin
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
76"
Reach
+79"
40
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Griffin
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.4
76.5
39.0
Performance Avg
70.0
37
Quality of Victory
50
74
Momentum Score
100
Griffin
Morales
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
3.6
45%
Strike Accuracy
57%
4.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
20
0
Body
1
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
10Distance26
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Griffin
Morales
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Griffin
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/33 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Griffin
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
74
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
7-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Griffin
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
71%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Griffin
Morales
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.1
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
GriffinMorales
Strike Zones
Griffin
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedMorales
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Griffin targets the head (100% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (77% of attacks) — Griffin absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Griffin
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0
Griffin · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Morales · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Griffin · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Victor ValenzuelaRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Sub · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 4.8Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael MoralesRating 7.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
Morales · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Sean BradyRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Neil MagnyRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07