Alexander Gustafsson vs Jan Blachowicz — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett

Hamburg, Germany

3 Sept 2016

Light Heavyweight

36%

Gustafsson

64%

Blachowicz

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Alexander Gustafsson

"The Mauler"

18 – 8

6'5"79" reachOrthodox39 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 25

Jan Blachowicz

29 – 11

Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'2"

CFR 44

★ Official Result

Alexander GustafssonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Jan Blachowicz · UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Blachowicz

→

Actual result

Gustafsson wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Blachowicz holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Gustafsson has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Gustafsson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Blachowicz has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

GustafssonBlachowicz

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Gustafsson

Blachowicz

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'5"+

Height

6'2"

79"+

Reach

78"

39+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Gustafsson

Blachowicz

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

24.8

44.0

50.3

Performance Avg

51.8

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Gustafsson

Blachowicz

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

6.1

/ 10

5.3

/ 10

6.6

Style: Pressure

5.8

3.5

Style: Volume

4.5

5 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

5 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

5Distance7

0Clinch0

12Ground0

Gustafsson

Blachowicz

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.3

/ 10

2.3

/ 10

1.6

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.6

2.0

Submission Style (/10)

1.7

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Gustafsson

Blachowicz

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.7 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

Most recent fight

Last KO loss

Most recent fight

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

18/26 fights

Chin rating based on

23/40 fights

Gustafsson

Blachowicz

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

4-fight 📉 slide

Current form

3-fight 📉 slide

L · KO · R1

L · Sub · R1

L · Sub · R4

L · KO · R3

W · KO · R5

Last 5

L · KO · R1

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

Upcoming

Gustafsson

Blachowicz

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

70%

58%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gustafsson

Blachowicz

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

6.1

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

5.3

2.3

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.3

1.6

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.6

2.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

1.7

6.6

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.8

3.5

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.5

Gustafsson

Strike Zones

Blachowicz

Gustafsson

Attacking

17 landed

Absorbing

7 absorbed

Blachowicz

Attacking

7 landed

Absorbing

17 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Gustafsson targets the head (94% of attacks) — Blachowicz absorbs 94% of strikes there

🎯Blachowicz targets the head (57% of attacks) — Gustafsson absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gustafsson

RND

Blachowicz

0/0R00/0

Gustafsson · Last 5

L · KO · R1

Nikita Krylov

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07

L · Sub · R1

Fabricio Werdum

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07

L · Sub · R4

Anthony Smith

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06

L · KO · R3

Jon Jones

KO/TKO

UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12

W · KO · R5

Glover Teixeira

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05

Blachowicz · Last 5

L · KO · R1

Navajo Stirling

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · 2026-08

Upcoming

Bogdan Guskov

Decision

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12

L · Dec · R3

Carlos Ulberg

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03

L · Dec · R3

Alex Pereira

Decision

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

Upcoming

Magomed Ankalaev

Decision

UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12

News & Media

Alexander Gustafsson · Jan Blachowicz

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