UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett
Hamburg, Germany
3 Sept 2016
Light Heavyweight
VS
35%
Gustafsson
65%
Blachowicz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AG
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
18 – 8
6'5"79" reachOrthodox39 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 25
Jan
Jan Blachowicz
29 – 11
Well-Rounded2-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'2"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Blachowicz

Blachowicz holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Gustafsson has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Blachowicz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Gustafsson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Blachowicz has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Gustafsson
Blachowicz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'2"
79"+
Reach
78"
39+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gustafsson
Blachowicz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.8
46.4
50.3
Performance Avg
53.0
47
Quality of Victory
48
39
Momentum Score
20
Gustafsson
Blachowicz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
51%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
5 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
4
0
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance7
0Clinch0
12Ground0
Gustafsson
Blachowicz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.3
/ 10
2.3
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gustafsson
Blachowicz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/26 fights
Chin rating based on
22/40 fights
Gustafsson
Blachowicz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
20
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R3
Gustafsson
Blachowicz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
58%
5
KO / TKO Wins
5
2
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gustafsson
Blachowicz
Striking6.1 / 5.4Volume3.5 / 4.5Grappling2.3 / 2.3Wrestling1.6 / 1.6Submission2.0 / 1.7Pressure6.6 / 5.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
Gustafsson
Strike Zones
Blachowicz
Gustafsson
Attacking
16HEAD0BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD3BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Blachowicz
Attacking
4HEAD3BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD0BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gustafsson targets the head (94% of attacks) — Blachowicz absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Blachowicz targets the head (57% of attacks) — Gustafsson absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gustafsson
RND
Blachowicz
0/0R00/0

Gustafsson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W1.5L5.2W5.0W5.2W5.0W4.5W4.5W7.3L5.1W1.5L5.5L5.1W5.9W4.5L4.5L1.5L2.7L2009-112011-122015-012019-062022-07
WinLossTrend

Blachowicz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L5.2W5.5W4.5W6.5W2.8L5.3W4.5W5.0W6.2W5.9W2.5L5.4W7.6L7.4L2014-102017-042019-022021-032025-03
WinLossTrend

Gustafsson · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Fabricio WerdumRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Sub · R4
Anthony SmithRating 4.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R5
Glover TeixeiraRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05

Blachowicz · Last 5

Upcoming
Bogdan Guskov
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Carlos UlbergRating 7.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Alex PereiraRating 7.6
Decision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Upcoming
Magomed Ankalaev
Decision
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
W · KO · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05

News & Media

Alexander Gustafsson · Jan Blachowicz
← Back to fights