Roan Carneiro vs Kenny Robertson — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson

Hidalgo, USA

17 Sept 2016

Welterweight

45%

Carneiro

55%

Robertson

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Roan Carneiro

"Jucao"

21 – 11

5'11"76" reachOrthodox48 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 16

Kenny Robertson

15 – 5

Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"

CFR 19

★ Official Result

Roan CarneirowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Kenny Robertson · UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Robertson

→

Actual result

Carneiro wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Carneiro at 45% vs Robertson at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Robertson throws more volume but Carneiro connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Carneiro's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

CarneiroRobertson

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Carneiro

Robertson

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'11"+

Height

5'10"

76"+

Reach

74"

Age

+42

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Carneiro

Robertson

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

16.1

19.3

41.6

Performance Avg

46.7

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Carneiro

Robertson

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

0.7

1.0

44%

Strike Accuracy

43%

3.4

Striking Style Score (/10)

3.4

1 KOs

KO Finishes

1 KOs

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

16Distance8

1Clinch1

0Ground0

Carneiro

Robertson

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

—

Sub Attempts / fight

0.2

3.2

Grappling Style Score (/10)

4.6

2.2

Wrestling Style Score (/10)

3.2

0:00

Control Time (this fight)

0:00

Reversals

Carneiro

Robertson

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

2 fights ago

Last KO loss

8 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

9/32 fights

Chin rating based on

9/20 fights

Carneiro

Robertson

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

Current form

2-fight 📉 slide

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

W · Sub · R1

L · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R1

Carneiro

Robertson

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

50%

75%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Carneiro

Robertson

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.4

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.4

3.2

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.6

2.2

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

3.2

2.5

Submission

Submission attack frequency

5.0

4.8

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.6

4.9

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

2.9

Carneiro

Strike Zones

Robertson

Carneiro

Attacking

17 landed

Absorbing

9 absorbed

Robertson

Attacking

9 landed

Absorbing

17 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Carneiro targets the head (82% of attacks) — Robertson absorbs 82% of strikes there

🎯Robertson targets the legs (44% of attacks) — Carneiro absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Carneiro

RND

Robertson

0/0R00/0

Carneiro · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2

WinLossTrend

Robertson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9

WinLossTrend

Carneiro · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Ryan LaFlareRating 5.5

Decision

UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02

W · Dec · R3

Kenny RobertsonRating 4.5

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09

L · KO · R1

Derek BrunsonRating 1.8

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02

W · Sub · R1

Mark MunozRating 5

Submission

UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02

L · Dec · R3

Ryo ChonanRating 5.5

Decision

UFC 88: Breakthrough · 2008-09

Robertson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Roan CarneiroRating 5.5

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09

L · Dec · R3

Ben SaundersRating 5.5

Decision

UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07

W · KO · R1

Sultan AlievRating 5

KO/TKO

UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

W · Dec · R3

Ildemar AlcantaraRating 4.5

Decision

UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida · 2014-07

W · Sub · R1

Thiago PerpetuoRating 5

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2 · 2014-03

News & Media

Roan Carneiro · Kenny Robertson

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