UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson
Hidalgo, USA
17 Sept 2016
Welterweight
VS
45%
Carneiro
55%
Robertson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RC
Roan Carneiro
"Jucao"
21 – 11
5'11"76" reachOrthodox47 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 16
KR
Kenny Robertson
15 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Robertson

This is a genuine toss-up — Carneiro at 45% vs Robertson at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Robertson throws more volume but Carneiro connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Carneiro's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Carneiro
Robertson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
74"
47
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Carneiro
Robertson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.1
19.3
41.6
Performance Avg
46.7
40
Quality of Victory
48
59
Momentum Score
69
Carneiro
Robertson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.0
44%
Strike Accuracy
43%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
3
3
Body
2
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
16Distance8
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Carneiro
Robertson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.6
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Carneiro
Robertson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/32 fights
Chin rating based on
9/20 fights
Carneiro
Robertson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
69
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Carneiro
Robertson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
75%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Carneiro
Robertson
Striking3.4 / 3.4Volume4.9 / 2.9Grappling3.2 / 4.6Wrestling2.2 / 3.2Submission2.5 / 5.0Pressure4.8 / 6.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Carneiro
Strike Zones
Robertson
Carneiro
Attacking
14HEAD3BODY0LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD2BODY4LEGS9 absorbed
Robertson
Attacking
3HEAD2BODY4LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD3BODY0LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Carneiro targets the head (82% of attacks) — Robertson absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Robertson targets the legs (44% of attacks) — Carneiro absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Carneiro
RND
Robertson
0/0R00/0

Carneiro · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.5W2.8L5.2W2.8L5.5L5.0W1.8L4.5W5.5L2007-042008-062016-022017-02
WinLossTrend

Robertson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L5.5L5.0W5.5L5.0W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L2011-022013-062015-012016-09
WinLossTrend

Carneiro · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ryan LaFlareRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02
W · Dec · R3
Kenny RobertsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02
W · Sub · R1
Mark MunozRating 5
Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
L · Dec · R3
Ryo ChonanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 88: Breakthrough · 2008-09

Robertson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Roan CarneiroRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Ben SaundersRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
W · KO · R1
Sultan AlievRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Ildemar AlcantaraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida · 2014-07
W · Sub · R1
Thiago PerpetuoRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2 · 2014-03

News & Media

Roan Carneiro · Kenny Robertson
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