METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Official Result
Nick DiazwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. BJ Penn · UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Diaz
→
Actual result
Diaz wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Penn at 43% vs Diaz at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Penn has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Risk flags
Penn's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Diaz has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PennDiaz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Penn
Diaz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'1"
70"
Reach
+76"
47
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Penn
Diaz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.2
28.9
56.9
Performance Avg
49.6
63
Quality of Victory
49
100
Momentum Score
46
Penn
Diaz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.0
/ 10
6.7
/ 10
7.3
Style: Pressure
7.5
1.6
Style: Volume
2.1
6 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
34
Head
60
2
Body
14
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
33Distance67
3Clinch8
0Ground0
Penn
Diaz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.9
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.9
4
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Penn
Diaz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
66
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/30 fights
Chin rating based on
15/36 fights
Penn
Diaz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Penn
Diaz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
86%
6
KO / TKO Wins
4
4
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Penn
Diaz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
1.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
PennDiaz
Strike Zones
Penn
Attacking
36 landedAbsorbing
75 absorbedDiaz
Attacking
75 landedAbsorbing
36 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Penn targets the head (94% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Diaz targets the head (80% of attacks) — Penn absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Penn
RND
Diaz
0/0R00/0
Penn · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaDecision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · Sub · R1
Ryan HallSubmission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverDecision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · KO · R2
Yair RodriguezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
L · KO · R3
Frankie EdgarKO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · 2014-07
Diaz · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Robbie LawlerKO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
Upcoming
Anderson SilvaUFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · 2015-01
L · Dec · R5
Georges St-PierreDecision
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
L · Dec · R5
Carlos ConditDecision
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · 2012-02
W · Dec · R3
BJ PennDecision
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · 2011-10