UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Dallas, USA
30 Jul 2022
Light Heavyweight
VS
53%
Ankalaev
47%
Smith
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:09
Magomed
Magomed Ankalaev
21 – 2
6'3"75" reachOrthodox33 yrsStriker
CFR 66
Anthony
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
38 – 22
Well-Rounded3-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'4"
CFR 58

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ankalaev

This is a genuine toss-up — Ankalaev at 53% vs Smith at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Ankalaev has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ankalaev's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Smith has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ankalaev
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+76"
33+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ankalaev
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.0
58.3
59.9
Performance Avg
50.7
43
Quality of Victory
50
100
Momentum Score
100
Ankalaev
Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.3
59%
Strike Accuracy
52%
6.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
6 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
3
3
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance5
1Clinch0
21Ground0
Ankalaev
Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ankalaev
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
6
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/23 fights
Chin rating based on
25/60 fights
Ankalaev
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Ankalaev
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
77%
6
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
5
6
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ankalaev
Smith
Striking6.7 / 4.9Volume5.7 / 2.3Grappling1.2 / 3.5Wrestling0.8 / 2.4Submission0.0 / 3.9Pressure6.1 / 6.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
Ankalaev
Strike Zones
Smith
Ankalaev
Attacking
22HEAD3BODY1LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Smith
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD3BODY1LEGS26 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ankalaev targets the head (85% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (60% of attacks) — Ankalaev absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ankalaev
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0

Ankalaev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.7L5.4W4.5W5.5W5.3W5.3W5.7W5.3W4.5W6.4W5.9W4.6W6.6W3.6L2018-032020-022022-032025-032025-10
WinLossTrend

Smith · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0101.5L4.5W5.5L5.2W5.5W5.5W2.8L5.0W5.0W6.0W7.3L5.4W4.4L5.6L5.0W5.5W5.4W4.3L6.3L4.9W4.9L6.1W6.9L3.8L3.5L2013-062018-062020-112024-052025-04
WinLossTrend

Ankalaev · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Alex PereiraRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R5
Alex PereiraRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 4.6
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Johnny WalkerRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Upcoming
Johnny Walker
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

Smith · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 4.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12

News & Media

Magomed Ankalaev · Anthony Smith
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