METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Dallas, USA
30 Jul 2022
Light Heavyweight
VS
53%
Ankalaev
47%
Smith
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:09
★ Official Result
Magomed AnkalaevwinsKO/TKOR2 · 3:09
def. Anthony Smith · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ankalaev
→
Actual result
Ankalaev wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Ankalaev at 53% vs Smith at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ankalaev has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ankalaev's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smith has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AnkalaevSmith
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ankalaev
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+76"
34+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ankalaev
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.0
58.3
59.9
Performance Avg
50.7
43
Quality of Victory
50
100
Momentum Score
100
Ankalaev
Smith
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
1.3
59%
Strike Accuracy
52%
6.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
6 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
3
3
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance5
1Clinch0
21Ground0
Ankalaev
Smith
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ankalaev
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
6
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/23 fights
Chin rating based on
25/60 fights
Ankalaev
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Ankalaev
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
77%
6
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
5
6
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ankalaev
Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
AnkalaevSmith
Strike Zones
Ankalaev
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedSmith
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ankalaev targets the head (85% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (60% of attacks) — Ankalaev absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ankalaev
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
Ankalaev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Ankalaev · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alex PereiraRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R5
Alex PereiraRating 6.6Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 4.6Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Johnny WalkerRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Upcoming
Johnny WalkerUFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.1Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12