UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
Montreal, Canada
25 Apr 2015
Lightweight
VS
64%
Aubin-Mercier
36%
Michaud
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:35
OA
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
11 – 5
5'9"70" reachSouthpaw37 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
DM
David Michaud
"BullDawg"
11 – 3
Well-Rounded37 yrsOrthodox5'9"
CFR 11

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aubin-Mercier

Aubin-Mercier holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Michaud has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Aubin-Mercier has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Striking split: Michaud throws more volume but Aubin-Mercier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Aubin-Mercier
Michaud
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
37
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Aubin-Mercier
Michaud
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
11.1
49.0
Performance Avg
28.3
43
Quality of Victory
25
61
Momentum Score
33
Aubin-Mercier
Michaud
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.0
53%
Strike Accuracy
48%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
2
1
Body
0
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
6Clinch2
0Ground0
Aubin-Mercier
Michaud
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aubin-Mercier
Michaud
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
86
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/16 fights
Chin rating based on
3/14 fights
Aubin-Mercier
Michaud
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
33
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Aubin-Mercier
Michaud
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aubin-Mercier
Michaud
Striking2.6 / 0.7Volume3.5 / 8.7Grappling5.3 / 2.4Wrestling3.7 / 1.7Submission5.7 / 0.0Pressure6.8 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
5.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Aubin-Mercier
Strike Zones
Michaud
Aubin-Mercier
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY6LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Michaud
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY6LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aubin-Mercier targets the legs (86% of attacks) — Michaud absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Michaud targets the head (100% of attacks) — Aubin-Mercier absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aubin-Mercier
RND
Michaud
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Aubin-Mercier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.5L5.2W5.5W4.5W6.5L5.5W6.5W4.5W5.0W6.4L5.7L7.1L2014-042015-082016-122018-072019-07
WinLossTrend

Michaud · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0106.3L4.5W4.0L2014-052014-122015-04
WinLossTrend

Aubin-Mercier · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R1
Evan DunhamRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09

Michaud · Last 3

L · Sub · R3
Olivier Aubin-MercierRating 4
Submission
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · 2015-04
W · Dec · R3
Garett WhiteleyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · Dec · R3
Li JingliangRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05

News & Media

Olivier Aubin-Mercier · David Michaud
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