UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
Las Vegas, USA
19 Oct 2024
Featherweight
VS
46%
Elkins
54%
Pineda
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Darren
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29 – 12
5'10"71" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Daniel
Daniel Pineda
"The Pit"
28 – 17
Submission Hunter3-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'7"
CFR 53

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pineda

This is a genuine toss-up — Elkins at 46% vs Pineda at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Pineda has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Striking split: Elkins throws more volume but Pineda connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Elkins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pineda has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Elkins
Pineda
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
71"+
Reach
69"
42
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Elkins
Pineda
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.7
52.9
46.3
Performance Avg
47.4
35
Quality of Victory
53
66
Momentum Score
85
Elkins
Pineda
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
38%
Strike Accuracy
55%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
3
5
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
14Distance6
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Elkins
Pineda
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.4
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Elkins
Pineda
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
44
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/41 fights
Chin rating based on
14/45 fights
Elkins
Pineda
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
85
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Elkins
Pineda
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
37%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
4
12
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Elkins
Pineda
Striking3.4 / 2.8Volume6.3 / 0.8Grappling2.8 / 6.4Wrestling1.9 / 4.5Submission1.6 / 8.0Pressure4.5 / 8.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.5
1.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
Elkins
Strike Zones
Pineda
Elkins
Attacking
12HEAD5BODY0LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY2LEGS6 absorbed
Pineda
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY2LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD5BODY0LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Elkins targets the head (71% of attacks) — Pineda absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Pineda targets the head (50% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Elkins
RND
Pineda
0/0R00/0

Elkins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W2.9L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.3W7.0L4.0L5.5L6.2L5.5W5.2W2.0L4.5W6.0L5.5W5.4W1.7L2010-032013-082017-072021-122025-04
WinLossTrend

Pineda · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W5.0W5.5L1.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L5.6W3.3L5.2W5.7L6.3L6.0L2012-012013-042020-122024-10
WinLossTrend

Elkins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04

Pineda · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · Sub · R2
Tucker LutzRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
Upcoming
Andre Fili
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News & Media

Darren Elkins · Daniel Pineda
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