METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
Las Vegas, USA
19 Oct 2024
Featherweight
VS
46%
Elkins
54%
Pineda
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Darren ElkinswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Daniel Pineda · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Pineda
→
Actual result
Elkins wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Elkins at 46% vs Pineda at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pineda has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Striking split: Elkins throws more volume but Pineda connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Elkins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pineda has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ElkinsPineda
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Elkins
Pineda
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
71"+
Reach
69"
42
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Elkins
Pineda
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.7
52.9
46.3
Performance Avg
47.4
35
Quality of Victory
53
66
Momentum Score
85
Elkins
Pineda
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
1.1
38%
Strike Accuracy
55%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
3
5
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
14Distance6
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Elkins
Pineda
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.4
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Elkins
Pineda
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
44
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/41 fights
Chin rating based on
14/45 fights
Elkins
Pineda
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
85
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Elkins
Pineda
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
37%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
4
12
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Elkins
Pineda
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.5
1.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
ElkinsPineda
Strike Zones
Elkins
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedPineda
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Elkins targets the head (71% of attacks) — Pineda absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Pineda targets the head (50% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Elkins
RND
Pineda
0/0R00/0
Elkins · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Pineda · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Elkins · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
Pineda · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 6.3Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · Sub · R2
Tucker LutzRating 5.2Submission
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Upcoming
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