METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
Las Vegas, USA
19 Oct 2024
Featherweight
VS
46%
Elkins
54%
Pineda
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Darren ElkinswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Daniel Pineda · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Pineda
→
Actual result
Elkins wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Elkins at 46% vs Pineda at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pineda has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Risk flags
Elkins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pineda has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ElkinsPineda
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Elkins
Pineda
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
71"+
Reach
69"
42
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Elkins
Pineda
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.3
52.9
45.5
Performance Avg
47.4
35
Quality of Victory
53
66
Momentum Score
85
Elkins
Pineda
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
2.8
/ 10
4.4
Style: Pressure
8.2
6.3
Style: Volume
0.8
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
3
5
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
14Distance6
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Elkins
Pineda
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.8
/ 10
6.4
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.5
1.6
Submission Style (/10)
8.0
3
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Elkins
Pineda
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
44
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
31/41 fights
Chin rating based on
14/45 fights
Elkins
Pineda
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
85
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Elkins
Pineda
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
37%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
4
12
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Elkins
Pineda
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.5
1.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
ElkinsPineda
Strike Zones
Elkins
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedPineda
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Elkins targets the head (71% of attacks) — Pineda absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Pineda targets the head (50% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Elkins
RND
Pineda
0/0R00/0
Elkins · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Yadier del ValleKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld · 2026-08
L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaKO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceDecision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
Pineda · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodDecision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresDecision
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W · Sub · R2
Tucker LutzSubmission
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Upcoming
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