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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta
Milwaukee, USA
15 Dec 2018
Light Heavyweight
VS
42%
Milstead
58%
Rodriguez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:59
AM
Adam Milstead
"The Prototype"
8 – 4
6'3"76" reachOrthodox39 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 19
MR
Mike Rodriguez
"Slo Mike"
11 – 7
Knockout Artist3-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw82" reach6'4"
CFR 27
★ Official Result
Mike RodriguezwinsKO/TKOR1 · 2:59
def. Adam Milstead · UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Rodriguez
→
Actual result
Rodriguez wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Milstead at 42% vs Rodriguez at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Rodriguez has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
MilsteadRodriguez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Milstead
Rodriguez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
76"
Reach
+82"
39
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Milstead
Rodriguez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.1
26.6
46.3
Performance Avg
47.4
55
Quality of Victory
60
52
Momentum Score
26
Milstead
Rodriguez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
10.0
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
8.0
Style: Pressure
7.9
0.7
Style: Volume
0.6
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
25
2
Body
8
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance16
0Clinch5
1Ground14
Milstead
Rodriguez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Milstead
Rodriguez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
50
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/12 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Milstead
Rodriguez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
26
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Milstead
Rodriguez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Milstead
Rodriguez
Striking10.0 / 10.0Volume0.7 / 0.6Grappling0.0 / 0.0Wrestling0.0 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure8.0 / 7.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.6
Milstead
Strike Zones
Rodriguez
Milstead
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY3LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
25HEAD8BODY2LEGS35 absorbed
Rodriguez
Attacking
25HEAD8BODY2LEGS35 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY3LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Milstead targets the head (50% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (71% of attacks) — Milstead absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Milstead
RND
Rodriguez
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Milstead · Last 4

L · KO · R1
Mike Rodriguez
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Jordan Johnson
Decision
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
Upcoming
Curtis Blaydes
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie · 2017-02
W · KO · R2
Chris de la Rocha
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05

Rodriguez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tafon Nchukwi
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · 2021-09
L · Sub · R2
Danilo Marques
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
L · Sub · R3
Ed Herman
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · KO · R1
Marcin Prachnio
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · 2020-08
L · KO · R1
Da Woon Jung
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-12

News & Media

Adam Milstead · Mike Rodriguez
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