UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik
Las Vegas, USA
8 Aug 2020
Middleweight
VS
45%
Holland
55%
Buckley
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:32
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Buckley
This is a genuine toss-up — Holland at 45% vs Buckley at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Buckley throws more volume but Holland connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Holland's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Buckley has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Holland
Buckley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'10"
81"+
Reach
76"
33
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Holland
Buckley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.0
58.0
49.3
Performance Avg
50.6
44
Quality of Victory
41
51
Momentum Score
100
Holland
Buckley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.6
52%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
5 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
2
2
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Holland
Buckley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holland
Buckley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
28
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
29/44 fights
Chin rating based on
17/29 fights
Holland
Buckley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Holland
Buckley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
69%
55%
5
KO / TKO Wins
6
6
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holland
Buckley
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
HollandBuckley
Strike Zones
Holland
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedBuckley
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holland targets the head (67% of attacks) — Buckley absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Buckley targets the head (67% of attacks) — Holland absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holland
RND
Buckley
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Holland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Buckley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Holland · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 5.4Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Mike MalottRating 7.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Vicente LuqueRating 6.7Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
Buckley · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean BradyRating 6.6Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 5.6UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Nursulton RuziboevRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05