UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
Anaheim, USA
22 Jan 2022
Welterweight
VS
56%
Maddalena
44%
Rodriguez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Maddalena
This is a genuine toss-up — Maddalena at 56% vs Rodriguez at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rodriguez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Rodriguez throws more volume but Maddalena connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Rodriguez has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Maddalena
Rodriguez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
71"
29
Age
29
Switch
Stance
Switch
Maddalena
Rodriguez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.0
49.5
59.9
Performance Avg
49.3
46
Quality of Victory
60
80
Momentum Score
52
Maddalena
Rodriguez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
6.3
56%
Strike Accuracy
44%
6.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
38
Head
12
5
Body
6
0
Leg
7
RangeRange
40Distance25
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Maddalena
Rodriguez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.9
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Maddalena
Rodriguez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
56
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/22 fights
Chin rating based on
3/7 fights
Maddalena
Rodriguez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
52
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Maddalena
Rodriguez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Maddalena
Rodriguez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
MaddalenaRodriguez
Strike Zones
Maddalena
Attacking
43 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedRodriguez
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
43 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Maddalena targets the head (88% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (48% of attacks) — Maddalena absorbs 48% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Maddalena
RND
Rodriguez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Maddalena · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Rodriguez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Maddalena · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Carlos PratesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Dec · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 7.5Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 5.6Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · KO · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
Rodriguez · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Themba GorimboRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02
W · KO · R1
Mike JacksonRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
L · KO · R1
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 3KO/TKO
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · 2022-01