UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Kansas City, USA
15 Apr 2017
Middleweight
VS
72%
Smith
28%
Sanchez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:52
Anthony
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
38 – 22
6'4"76" reachOrthodox37 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 58
AS
Andrew Sanchez
"El Dirte"
13 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'1"
CFR 23

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Smith

Smith is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Sanchez throws more volume but Smith connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Smith's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Sanchez has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Smith
Sanchez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'1"
76"+
Reach
74"
37+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smith
Sanchez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.3
23.1
50.7
Performance Avg
48.2
50
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
43
Smith
Sanchez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.4
52%
Strike Accuracy
45%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
12
4
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
14Distance12
4Clinch3
4Ground0
Smith
Sanchez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smith
Sanchez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
6
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/60 fights
Chin rating based on
10/20 fights
Smith
Sanchez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
43
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Smith
Sanchez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
77%
20%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Smith
Sanchez
Striking4.9 / 3.0Volume2.3 / 7.4Grappling3.5 / 1.9Wrestling2.4 / 1.3Submission3.9 / 0.0Pressure6.9 / 2.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.9
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.4
Smith
Strike Zones
Sanchez
Smith
Attacking
18HEAD4BODY0LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD0BODY3LEGS15 absorbed
Sanchez
Attacking
12HEAD0BODY3LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD4BODY0LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the head (82% of attacks) — Sanchez absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Sanchez targets the head (80% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Smith
RND
Sanchez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Smith · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0101.5L4.5W5.5L5.2W5.5W5.5W2.8L5.0W5.0W6.0W7.3L5.4W4.4L5.6L5.0W5.5W5.4W4.3L6.3L4.9W4.9L6.1W6.9L3.8L3.5L2013-062018-062020-112024-052025-04
WinLossTrend

Sanchez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.4W4.5W5.2L4.0L4.5W4.5W6.3L5.0W5.0L5.3L2016-072017-122019-102021-10
WinLossTrend

Smith · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 4.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12

Sanchez · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10
L · KO · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
Wellington TurmanRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
L · Dec · R3
Marvin VettoriRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
W · Dec · R3
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05

News & Media

Anthony Smith · Andrew Sanchez
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