UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
12 Sept 2020
Lightweight
VS
68%
Green
32%
Patrick
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Green
Green holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Patrick has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Green has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Green's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Patrick has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Green
Patrick
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+74"
39+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Green
Patrick
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.0
22.8
45.9
Performance Avg
41.4
38
Quality of Victory
32
85
Momentum Score
58
Green
Patrick
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.2
0.7
55%
Strike Accuracy
39%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
5
6
Body
4
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
24Distance9
5Clinch0
1Ground0
Green
Patrick
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Green
Patrick
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
32
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/52 fights
Chin rating based on
10/19 fights
Green
Patrick
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
58
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Green
Patrick
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
20%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Green
Patrick
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.1
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
1.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.5
GreenPatrick
Strike Zones
Green
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedPatrick
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Green targets the head (73% of attacks) — Patrick absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Patrick targets the head (56% of attacks) — Green absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Green
RND
Patrick
0/0R00/0
Green · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Patrick · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Green · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jeremy StephensRating 5.5Submission
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W · KO · R2
Daniel ZellhuberRating 5.6KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Lance Gibson Jr.Rating 5.9Decision
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L · KO · R1
Mauricio RuffyRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Sub · R1
Paddy PimblettRating 3.2Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
Patrick · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
Upcoming
Mason JonesUFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
L · KO · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Damir HadzovicRating 4.5Decision
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