UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
14 Jan 2012
Heavyweight
VS
89%
Gonzaga
11%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:22
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gonzaga
Gonzaga is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gonzaga has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 54 points.
Gonzaga has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gonzaga's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gonzaga
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'5"
76"
Reach
47
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gonzaga
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.6
2.4
53.9
Performance Avg
0.0
54
Quality of Victory
0
59
Momentum Score
0
Gonzaga
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.2
48%
Strike Accuracy
16%
6.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Gonzaga
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.9
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gonzaga
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
86
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
8
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/28 fights
Chin rating based on
2/20 fights
Gonzaga
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Gonzaga
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
92%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gonzaga
Oliveira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
GonzagaOliveira
Strike Zones
Gonzaga
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedOliveira
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gonzaga targets the body (100% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gonzaga
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
Gonzaga · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Gonzaga · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos · 2016-04
W · Dec · R3
Konstantin ErokhinRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12
L · KO · R3
Mirko FilipovicRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Matt MitrioneRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · Dec · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.6Decision
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · 2014-01
Oliveira · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Francimar BarrosoRating 5.5Decision
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · 2013-08
L · Sub · R1
Gabriel GonzagaRating 1.5Submission
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes · 2012-01