UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
Newark, USA
6 May 2023
Featherweight
VS
50%
Evloev
50%
Lopes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Movsar
Movsar Evloev
20 – 0
5'7"72" reachOrthodox32 yrs10-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 61
Diego
Diego Lopes
27 – 8
Well-Rounded31 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Evloev

This is a genuine toss-up — Evloev at 50% vs Lopes at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Lopes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.

Striking split: Evloev throws more volume but Lopes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Evloev
Lopes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
72"
32
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Evloev
Lopes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.8
61.4
55.0
Performance Avg
55.6
25
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
69
Evloev
Lopes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.3
46%
Strike Accuracy
49%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
9
0
Body
1
8
Leg
0
RangeRange
17Distance7
10Clinch3
6Ground0
Evloev
Lopes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Evloev
Lopes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
94
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/20 fights
Chin rating based on
10/35 fights
Evloev
Lopes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
69
10-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Evloev
Lopes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
10
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Evloev
Lopes
Striking2.0 / 6.3Volume10.0 / 4.0Grappling2.4 / 2.1Wrestling1.7 / 1.5Submission0.0 / 1.7Pressure3.0 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
3.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
10.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Evloev
Strike Zones
Lopes
Evloev
Attacking
25HEAD0BODY8LEGS33 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD1BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Lopes
Attacking
9HEAD1BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
25HEAD0BODY8LEGS33 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Evloev targets the head (76% of attacks) — Lopes absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Lopes targets the head (90% of attacks) — Evloev absorbs 90% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Evloev
RND
Lopes
0/0R00/0

Evloev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.7W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.6W5.2W5.8W5.9W5.5W6.0W2019-042021-012023-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Lopes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.2
0106.8L5.0W6.0W5.8W5.2W5.9W7.0L6.7W7.0L2023-052024-042025-042026-01
WinLossTrend

Evloev · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Diego LopesRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · Dec · R3
Dan IgeRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06

Lopes · Last 5

Upcoming
Steve Garcia
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · KO · R2
Jean SilvaRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09

News & Media

Movsar Evloev · Diego Lopes
← Back to fights