UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
Salt Lake City, USA
20 Aug 2022
Flyweight
VS
2%
Lacerda
98%
Altamirano
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:39
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Altamirano
Altamirano is a strong favourite at 98% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Altamirano has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.
Altamirano has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lacerda's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lacerda
Altamirano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'8"
70"
Reach
70"
29+
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Switch
Lacerda
Altamirano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
0.7
36.4
0.0
Performance Avg
38.8
0
Quality of Victory
43
0
Momentum Score
20
Lacerda
Altamirano
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.3
40%
Strike Accuracy
57%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
48
3
Body
9
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
16Distance15
2Clinch2
4Ground41
Lacerda
Altamirano
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lacerda
Altamirano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
92
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/17 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Lacerda
Altamirano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
20
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Lacerda
Altamirano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lacerda
Altamirano
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
LacerdaAltamirano
Strike Zones
Lacerda
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
58 absorbedAltamirano
Attacking
58 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lacerda targets the head (64% of attacks) — Altamirano absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Altamirano targets the head (83% of attacks) — Lacerda absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lacerda
RND
Altamirano
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lacerda · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.3WinLossTrend
Altamirano · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Lacerda · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Edgar ChairezRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
Upcoming
Edgar ChairezUFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
L · KO · R2
CJ VergaraRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
L · KO · R1
Victor AltamiranoRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · Sub · R1
Francisco FigueiredoRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
Altamirano · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Daniel BarezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · Dec · R3
Felipe dos SantosRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · Dec · R3
Vinicius SalvadorRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
W · KO · R1
Daniel LacerdaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08