METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
Salt Lake City, USA
20 Aug 2022
Flyweight
VS
2%
Lacerda
98%
Altamirano
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:39
★ Official Result
Victor AltamiranowinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:39
def. Daniel Lacerda · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Altamirano
→
Actual result
Altamirano wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Altamirano is a strong favourite at 98% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Altamirano has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.
Risk flags
Lacerda's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
LacerdaAltamirano
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Lacerda
Altamirano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'8"
70"
Reach
70"
30+
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Switch
Lacerda
Altamirano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
0.6
36.4
0.0
Performance Avg
38.8
0
Quality of Victory
43
0
Momentum Score
20
Lacerda
Altamirano
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
5.7
/ 10
0.0
Style: Pressure
4.5
0.0
Style: Volume
4.7
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
48
3
Body
9
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
16Distance15
2Clinch2
4Ground41
Lacerda
Altamirano
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lacerda
Altamirano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
92
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/17 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Lacerda
Altamirano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
20
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Lacerda
Altamirano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lacerda
Altamirano
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
LacerdaAltamirano
Strike Zones
Lacerda
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
58 absorbedAltamirano
Attacking
58 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lacerda targets the head (64% of attacks) — Altamirano absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Altamirano targets the head (83% of attacks) — Lacerda absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lacerda
RND
Altamirano
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lacerda · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Edgar ChairezSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
Upcoming
Edgar ChairezNoche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
L · KO · R2
CJ VergaraKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
L · KO · R1
Victor AltamiranoKO/TKO
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · Sub · R1
Francisco FigueiredoSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
Altamirano · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Daniel BarezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · Dec · R3
Felipe dos SantosDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottDecision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · Dec · R3
Vinicius SalvadorDecision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
W · KO · R1
Daniel LacerdaKO/TKO
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08