UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
Las Vegas, USA
22 Apr 2023
Welterweight
VS
58%
Wells
42%
Semelsberger
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jeremiah
Jeremiah Wells
13 – 4
5'9"74" reachSwitch39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 62
Matthew
Matthew Semelsberger
"Semi The Jedi"
11 – 8
Well-Rounded4-fight slide33 yrsSwitch75" reach6'1"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Wells

This is a genuine toss-up — Wells at 58% vs Semelsberger at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Semelsberger throws more volume but Wells connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Semelsberger has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Wells
Semelsberger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'1"
74"
Reach
+75"
39
Age
+33
Switch
Stance
Switch
Wells
Semelsberger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.3
45.1
54.9
Performance Avg
41.6
44
Quality of Victory
39
84
Momentum Score
84
Wells
Semelsberger
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.2
51%
Strike Accuracy
43%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
2
3
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Wells
Semelsberger
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Wells
Semelsberger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
48
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/17 fights
Chin rating based on
11/19 fights
Wells
Semelsberger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
84
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Wells
Semelsberger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
40%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Wells
Semelsberger
Striking5.4 / 4.9Volume4.6 / 5.7Grappling2.6 / 1.4Wrestling1.8 / 1.0Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure6.3 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Wells
Strike Zones
Semelsberger
Wells
Attacking
0HEAD3BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Semelsberger
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD3BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Wells targets the body (100% of attacks) — Semelsberger absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Semelsberger targets the head (67% of attacks) — Wells absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Wells
RND
Semelsberger
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Wells · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.5W5.0W5.2W5.0W4.8L6.1L4.9W2021-062022-062023-082025-11
WinLossTrend

Semelsberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0104.5W5.0W6.9L5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W6.9L5.8L5.5L2.7L2020-082021-092022-122024-012024-11
WinLossTrend

Wells · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Themba GorimboRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Sub · R3
Carlston HarrisRating 4.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
W · Dec · R3
Matthew SemelsbergerRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
W · KO · R1
Court McGeeRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06

Semelsberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Charles RadtkeRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Preston ParsonsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · KO · R3
Uros MedicRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12

News & Media

Jeremiah Wells · Matthew Semelsberger
← Back to fights