METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
Las Vegas, USA
22 Apr 2023
Welterweight
VS
59%
Wells
41%
Semelsberger
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Jeremiah WellswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Matthew Semelsberger · UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Wells
→
Actual result
Wells wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Wells at 59% vs Semelsberger at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Semelsberger has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
WellsSemelsberger
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Wells
Semelsberger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'1"
74"
Reach
+75"
39
Age
+33
Switch
Stance
Switch
Wells
Semelsberger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.3
45.1
56.4
Performance Avg
41.6
44
Quality of Victory
39
92
Momentum Score
84
Wells
Semelsberger
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.8
/ 10
4.9
/ 10
6.9
Style: Pressure
4.2
4.2
Style: Volume
5.7
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
2
3
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Wells
Semelsberger
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Wells
Semelsberger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
48
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/17 fights
Chin rating based on
11/19 fights
Wells
Semelsberger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
92
84
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Wells
Semelsberger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
40%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Wells
Semelsberger
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
WellsSemelsberger
Strike Zones
Wells
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedSemelsberger
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Wells targets the body (100% of attacks) — Semelsberger absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Semelsberger targets the head (67% of attacks) — Wells absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Wells
RND
Semelsberger
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Wells · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
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