UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine
Halifax, Canada
4 Oct 2014
Bantamweight
VS
61%
Assuncao
39%
Caraway
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RA
Raphael Assuncao
28 – 10
5'5"66" reachOrthodox43 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 31
BC
Bryan Caraway
"Kid Lightning"
21 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'8"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Assuncao

Assuncao holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Caraway has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Assuncao has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Assuncao's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Assuncao
Caraway
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'8"
66"
Reach
+68"
43
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Assuncao
Caraway
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.4
20.0
44.2
Performance Avg
47.9
32
Quality of Victory
40
61
Momentum Score
82
Assuncao
Caraway
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.1
43%
Strike Accuracy
37%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
8
4
Body
2
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
14Distance10
9Clinch1
1Ground0
Assuncao
Caraway
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.1
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Assuncao
Caraway
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
72
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/38 fights
Chin rating based on
10/30 fights
Assuncao
Caraway
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
82
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Assuncao
Caraway
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
4
9
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Assuncao
Caraway
Striking2.9 / 1.2Volume7.3 / 3.9Grappling2.5 / 6.1Wrestling1.7 / 4.3Submission0.8 / 6.7Pressure3.6 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.3
0.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
Assuncao
Strike Zones
Caraway
Assuncao
Attacking
15HEAD4BODY5LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Caraway
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD4BODY5LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Assuncao targets the head (63% of attacks) — Caraway absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Caraway targets the head (73% of attacks) — Assuncao absorbs 73% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Assuncao
RND
Caraway
0/0R00/0

Assuncao · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0101.5L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.2W4.6W5.0W4.5W5.6L5.5W4.5W5.5W5.7W1.5L7.0L3.8L3.4L5.4W4.8L2011-032013-102017-062020-062023-03
WinLossTrend

Caraway · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W5.5W5.5L5.5W5.2W5.5L4.5W5.5W5.5L2.0L2011-122013-042015-072018-11
WinLossTrend

Assuncao · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Victor HenryRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
L · KO · R2
Ricky SimonRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
L · KO · R2
Cody GarbrandtRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
L · Dec · R3
Cory SandhagenRating 7
Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08

Caraway · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Pedro MunhozRating 2
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · 2018-11
L · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
W · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · Dec · R3
Eddie WinelandRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · Dec · R3
Raphael AssuncaoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10

News & Media

Raphael Assuncao · Bryan Caraway
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