Raphael Assuncao vs Bryan Caraway — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine

Halifax, Canada

4 Oct 2014

Bantamweight

61%

Assuncao

39%

Caraway

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Raphael Assuncao

28 – 10

5'5"66" reachOrthodox44 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 31

Bryan Caraway

"Kid Lightning"

21 – 9

Well-Rounded2-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'8"

CFR 20

★ Official Result

Raphael AssuncaowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Bryan Caraway · UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Assuncao

→

Actual result

Assuncao wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Assuncao holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Caraway has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Assuncao has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Assuncao's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

AssuncaoCaraway

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Assuncao

Caraway

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'5"

Height

+5'8"

66"

Reach

+68"

Age

+41

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Assuncao

Caraway

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

31.4

20.0

44.2

Performance Avg

47.9

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Assuncao

Caraway

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.2

1.1

43%

Strike Accuracy

37%

2.9

Striking Style Score (/10)

1.2

2 KOs

KO Finishes

0 KOs

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

14Distance10

9Clinch1

1Ground0

Assuncao

Caraway

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

—

Sub Attempts / fight

0.1

2.5

Grappling Style Score (/10)

6.1

1.7

Wrestling Style Score (/10)

4.3

0:00

Control Time (this fight)

0:00

Reversals

Assuncao

Caraway

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

2 consec. KOs

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.7 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

2 fights ago

Last KO loss

Most recent fight

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

19/38 fights

Chin rating based on

10/30 fights

Assuncao

Caraway

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

Current form

2-fight 📉 slide

L · Sub · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · KO · R2

L · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · KO · R1

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

Assuncao

Caraway

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

25%

67%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Assuncao

Caraway

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

2.9

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

1.2

2.5

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

6.1

1.7

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

4.3

0.8

Submission

Submission attack frequency

6.7

3.6

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.5

7.3

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

3.9

Assuncao

Strike Zones

Caraway

Assuncao

Attacking

24 landed

Absorbing

11 absorbed

Caraway

Attacking

11 landed

Absorbing

24 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Assuncao targets the head (63% of attacks) — Caraway absorbs 63% of strikes there

🎯Caraway targets the head (73% of attacks) — Assuncao absorbs 73% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Assuncao

RND

Caraway

0/0R00/0

Assuncao · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6

WinLossTrend

Caraway · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0

WinLossTrend

Assuncao · Last 5

L · Sub · R3

Davey GrantRating 4.8

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03

W · Dec · R3

Victor HenryRating 5.4

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10

L · KO · R2

Ricky SimonRating 3.4

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

L · KO · R2

Cody GarbrandtRating 3.8

KO/TKO

UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06

L · Dec · R3

Cory SandhagenRating 7

Decision

UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08

Caraway · Last 5

L · KO · R1

Pedro MunhozRating 2

KO/TKO

The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · 2018-11

L · Dec · R3

Cody StamannRating 5.5

Decision

UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03

W · Dec · R3

Aljamain SterlingRating 5.5

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05

W · Dec · R3

Eddie WinelandRating 4.5

Decision

UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07

L · Dec · R3

Raphael AssuncaoRating 5.5

Decision

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10

News & Media

Raphael Assuncao · Bryan Caraway

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