UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis
Nashville, USA
23 Mar 2019
Bantamweight
VS
5%
MacDonald
95%
Gutierrez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RM
Ryan MacDonald
"Main Event"
10 – 2
5'11"71" reachSwitch33 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 2
Chris
Chris Gutierrez
"El Guapo"
22 – 7
Well-Rounded35 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'9"
CFR 44

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gutierrez

Gutierrez is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Gutierrez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.

Striking split: MacDonald throws more volume but Gutierrez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

MacDonald
Gutierrez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
71"+
Reach
67"
33+
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
MacDonald
Gutierrez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.1
44.2
0.0
Performance Avg
49.3
0
Quality of Victory
35
0
Momentum Score
25
MacDonald
Gutierrez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.8
34%
Strike Accuracy
61%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
6
1
Body
6
5
Leg
8
RangeRange
6Distance20
0Clinch0
0Ground0
MacDonald
Gutierrez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
MacDonald
Gutierrez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
82
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/12 fights
Chin rating based on
15/29 fights
MacDonald
Gutierrez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
25
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
MacDonald
Gutierrez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
30%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

MacDonald
Gutierrez
Striking0.0 / 4.4Volume0.0 / 7.0Grappling0.0 / 1.7Wrestling0.0 / 1.2Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.0 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
MacDonald
Strike Zones
Gutierrez
MacDonald
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY5LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD6BODY8LEGS20 absorbed
Gutierrez
Attacking
6HEAD6BODY8LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY5LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯MacDonald targets the legs (83% of attacks) — Gutierrez absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Gutierrez targets the legs (40% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 40% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

MacDonald
RND
Gutierrez
0/0R00/0

MacDonald · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0106.0L1.5L2019-032019-09
WinLossTrend

Gutierrez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0103.6L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.9W5.0W6.0L5.1W6.8L5.0W5.3W7.0L2018-112021-022023-042025-042025-10
WinLossTrend

MacDonald · Last 2

L · KO · R1
Louis SmolkaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Chris GutierrezRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03

Gutierrez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Farid BasharatRating 7
Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
John CastanedaRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Quang LeRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Song YadongRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
W · Dec · R3
AlatengheiliRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10

News & Media

Ryan MacDonald · Chris Gutierrez
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