UFC 72: Victory
Belfast, United Kingdom
16 Jun 2007
Lightweight
VS
27%
Griffin
73%
Guida
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Guida
Guida is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Griffin has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Griffin's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Guida has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Griffin
Guida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
68"
Reach
+70"
42+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Griffin
Guida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.4
44.2
42.3
Performance Avg
40.7
32
Quality of Victory
35
75
Momentum Score
78
Griffin
Guida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.0
43%
Strike Accuracy
36%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
11
0
Body
10
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
12Distance6
0Clinch0
5Ground17
Griffin
Guida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Griffin
Guida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
8
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/24 fights
Chin rating based on
37/60 fights
Griffin
Guida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
78
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Griffin
Guida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
39%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
5
6
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Griffin
Guida
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.8
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
GriffinGuida
Strike Zones
Griffin
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedGuida
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Griffin targets the head (94% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Guida targets the head (48% of attacks) — Griffin absorbs 48% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Griffin
RND
Guida
0/0R00/0
Griffin · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Guida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Griffin · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Bart PalaszewskiRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · 2011-10
W · Dec · R3
Manvel GamburyanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06
L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5Decision
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
L · KO · R1
Takanori GomiRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · 2010-08
L · Dec · R3
Evan DunhamRating 5.5Decision
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin · 2010-06
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04