UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland
Las Vegas, USA
5 Feb 2022
Light Heavyweight
VS
27%
Alvey
73%
Allen
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:10
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Allen
Allen is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Alvey throws more volume but Allen connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Alvey's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Allen has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Alvey
Allen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
75"
Reach
75"
40
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Alvey
Allen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.9
61.8
44.3
Performance Avg
56.8
45
Quality of Victory
43
43
Momentum Score
88
Alvey
Allen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.3
46%
Strike Accuracy
53%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
4
1
Body
4
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
6Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Alvey
Allen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.9
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alvey
Allen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
12 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/51 fights
Chin rating based on
19/33 fights
Alvey
Allen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
88
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Alvey
Allen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
64%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
7
4
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alvey
Allen
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.9
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.4
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
AlveyAllen
Strike Zones
Alvey
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedAllen
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alvey targets the head (67% of attacks) — Allen absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Allen targets the head (36% of attacks) — Alvey absorbs 36% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alvey
RND
Allen
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Alvey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Allen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Alvey · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Brendan AllenRating 4.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Wellington TurmanRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R2
Julian MarquezRating 3.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
Upcoming
Da Woon JungDecision
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
Allen · Last 5
Upcoming
Edmen ShahbazyanUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · KO · R4
Reinier de RidderRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Marvin VettoriRating 5.3Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Anthony HernandezRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Nassourdine ImavovRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09