UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Perth, Australia
17 Aug 2024
Flyweight
VS
9%
Nicoll
91%
Aguilar
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:39
Stewart
Stewart Nicoll
"Kakamora"
8 – 3
5'5"65" reachOrthodox30 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 5
Jesus
Jesus Aguilar
12 – 4
Well-Rounded30 yrsOrthodox62" reach5'4"
CFR 52

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aguilar

Aguilar is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Aguilar has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 41 points.

Nicoll has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Nicoll's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nicoll
Aguilar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'4"
65"+
Reach
62"
30
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nicoll
Aguilar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
5.1
52.3
0.0
Performance Avg
47.5
0
Quality of Victory
41
0
Momentum Score
60
Nicoll
Aguilar
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.0
37%
Strike Accuracy
35%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
2
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Nicoll
Aguilar
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nicoll
Aguilar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
84
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/11 fights
Chin rating based on
8/16 fights
Nicoll
Aguilar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
60
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Nicoll
Aguilar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nicoll
Aguilar
Striking0.0 / 3.6Volume0.0 / 5.1Grappling0.0 / 3.2Wrestling0.0 / 2.2Submission0.0 / 2.5Pressure0.0 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Nicoll
Strike Zones
Aguilar
Nicoll
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY2LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Aguilar
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY2LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nicoll targets the head (50% of attacks) — Aguilar absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Aguilar targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nicoll absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nicoll
RND
Aguilar
0/0R00/0

Nicoll · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0102.4L5.6L4.1L2024-082025-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Aguilar · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0103.2L5.0W4.5W5.0W6.1L4.5W6.1L2023-022024-022025-022026-03
WinLossTrend

Nicoll · Last 3

L · KO · R2
Alessandro CostaRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Lucas RochaRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R1
Jesus AguilarRating 2.4
Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

Aguilar · Last 5

Upcoming
Rei Tsuruya
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
SumudaerjiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Luis GuruleRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Rafael EstevamRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Sub · R1
Stewart NicollRating 5
Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

News & Media

Stewart Nicoll · Jesus Aguilar
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