METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Perth, Australia
17 Aug 2024
Flyweight
VS
9%
Nicoll
91%
Aguilar
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:39
★ Official Result
Jesus AguilarwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:39
def. Stewart Nicoll · UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Aguilar
→
Actual result
Aguilar wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Aguilar is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aguilar has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 41 points.
Risk flags
Nicoll's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NicollAguilar
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nicoll
Aguilar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'4"
65"+
Reach
62"
30
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nicoll
Aguilar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
5.0
52.3
0.0
Performance Avg
47.5
0
Quality of Victory
41
0
Momentum Score
60
Nicoll
Aguilar
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
3.6
/ 10
0.0
Style: Pressure
5.2
0.0
Style: Volume
5.1
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
2
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Nicoll
Aguilar
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nicoll
Aguilar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
84
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/11 fights
Chin rating based on
7/16 fights
Nicoll
Aguilar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
60
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Nicoll
Aguilar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nicoll
Aguilar
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
NicollAguilar
Strike Zones
Nicoll
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedAguilar
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nicoll targets the head (50% of attacks) — Aguilar absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Aguilar targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nicoll absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nicoll
RND
Aguilar
0/0R00/0
Nicoll · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Alden CoriaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · 2026-07
L · KO · R2
Alessandro CostaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Lucas RochaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R1
Jesus AguilarSubmission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
Aguilar · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
SumudaerjiDecision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Luis GuruleDecision
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Rafael EstevamDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Sub · R1
Stewart NicollSubmission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Mateus MendoncaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02