METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Perth, Australia
17 Aug 2024
Flyweight
VS
9%
Nicoll
91%
Aguilar
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:39
★ Official Result
Jesus AguilarwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:39
def. Stewart Nicoll · UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Aguilar
→
Actual result
Aguilar wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Aguilar is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aguilar has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 41 points.
Nicoll has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Nicoll's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NicollAguilar
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nicoll
Aguilar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'4"
65"+
Reach
62"
30
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nicoll
Aguilar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
5.1
52.3
0.0
Performance Avg
47.5
0
Quality of Victory
41
0
Momentum Score
60
Nicoll
Aguilar
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
1.0
37%
Strike Accuracy
35%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
2
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Nicoll
Aguilar
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nicoll
Aguilar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
84
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/11 fights
Chin rating based on
8/16 fights
Nicoll
Aguilar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
60
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Nicoll
Aguilar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nicoll
Aguilar
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
NicollAguilar
Strike Zones
Nicoll
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedAguilar
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nicoll targets the head (50% of attacks) — Aguilar absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Aguilar targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nicoll absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nicoll
RND
Aguilar
0/0R00/0
Nicoll · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Aguilar · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Nicoll · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Alessandro CostaRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Lucas RochaRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R1
Jesus AguilarRating 2.4Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
Aguilar · Last 5
Upcoming
Rei TsuruyaUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
SumudaerjiRating 6.1Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Luis GuruleRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Rafael EstevamRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Sub · R1
Stewart NicollRating 5Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08