UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Las Vegas, USA
4 Apr 2026
Heavyweight
VS
54%
Pat
46%
Petersen
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Guilherme
Guilherme Pat
"Kong"
6 – 1
6'6"81" reachOrthodox32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 41
Thomas
Thomas Petersen
"The Train"
11 – 4
Well-Rounded31 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'1"
CFR 34

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pat

This is a genuine toss-up — Pat at 54% vs Petersen at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Petersen throws more volume but Pat connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Petersen has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Pat
Petersen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'6"+
Height
6'1"
81"+
Reach
74"
32
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Pat
Petersen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.5
34.1
35.0
Performance Avg
35.0
25
Quality of Victory
25
55
Momentum Score
40
Pat
Petersen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.5
76%
Strike Accuracy
66%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
15
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch2
0Ground14
Pat
Petersen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pat
Petersen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
54
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/7 fights
Chin rating based on
6/15 fights
Pat
Petersen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
40
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Pat
Petersen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pat
Petersen
Striking1.0 / 1.0Volume9.0 / 9.0Grappling2.4 / 2.4Wrestling1.7 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.5 / 1.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
Pat
Strike Zones
Petersen
Pat
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD1BODY0LEGS16 absorbed
Petersen
Attacking
15HEAD1BODY0LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pat targets the head (100% of attacks) — Petersen absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Petersen targets the head (94% of attacks) — Pat absorbs 94% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pat
RND
Petersen
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Pat · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.5W5.5L2025-122026-04
WinLossTrend

Petersen · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.7L5.5W2.2L4.8W5.1L4.8W2024-022024-072025-022025-052025-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Pat · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Thomas PetersenRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Allen Frye Jr.Rating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12

Petersen · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Guilherme PatRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · KO · R3
Vitor PetrinoRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · KO · R1
Shamil GazievRating 2.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Mohammed UsmanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07

News & Media

Guilherme Pat · Thomas Petersen
← Back to fights