UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
San Antonio, USA
13 Sept 2025
Middleweight
VS
7%
Medina
93%
Todorovic
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:21
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Todorovic
Todorovic is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 40 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Todorovic has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 56 points.
Todorovic has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Medina's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Todorovic has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Medina
Todorovic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
74"
Reach
74"
35
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Medina
Todorovic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
3.4
43.1
0.0
Performance Avg
49.6
0
Quality of Victory
56
0
Momentum Score
13
Medina
Todorovic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
3.4
46%
Strike Accuracy
55%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
10
3
Body
6
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance10
0Clinch6
0Ground0
Medina
Todorovic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Medina
Todorovic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
8
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/18 fights
Chin rating based on
10/19 fights
Medina
Todorovic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
13
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Medina
Todorovic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Medina
Todorovic
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
MedinaTodorovic
Strike Zones
Medina
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTodorovic
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Medina targets the head (56% of attacks) — Todorovic absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Todorovic targets the head (63% of attacks) — Medina absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Medina
RND
Todorovic
0/0R00/0
Medina · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Todorovic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Medina · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Ryan GandraRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Sub · R1
Dusko TodorovicRating 1.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · KO · R1
Ateba GautierRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Zach ReeseRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
Todorovic · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jose Daniel MedinaRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Zach ReeseRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
L · KO · R1
Mansur Abdul-MalikRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · KO · R1
Christian Leroy DuncanRating 3KO/TKO
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · KO · R2
Jordan WrightRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10