UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues
Las Vegas, USA
15 Feb 2025
Bantamweight
VS
32%
Morales
68%
Smith
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
VM
Vince Morales
"Vandetta"
16 – 11
5'7"70" reachOrthodox35 yrs6-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 35
Elijah
Elijah Smith
"Swift"
10 – 1
Pressure Fighter3-fight win streak23 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 74

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Smith

Smith holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Morales has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Smith has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Morales's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Morales
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+71"
35
Age
+23
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Morales
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
34.6
73.9
32.0
Performance Avg
66.9
37
Quality of Victory
45
30
Momentum Score
100
Morales
Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.8
38%
Strike Accuracy
60%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
15
4
Body
1
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
15Distance18
2Clinch2
0Ground0
Morales
Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
1.2
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Morales
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
100
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/27 fights
Chin rating based on
3/11 fights
Morales
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
100
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Morales
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Morales
Smith
Striking3.8 / 5.3Volume5.8 / 4.7Grappling1.6 / 3.5Wrestling1.1 / 2.4Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure3.1 / 7.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Morales
Strike Zones
Smith
Morales
Attacking
13HEAD4BODY0LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD1BODY4LEGS20 absorbed
Smith
Attacking
15HEAD1BODY4LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD4BODY0LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Morales targets the head (76% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (75% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Morales
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0

Morales · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0106.8L5.6W5.5L3.2L4.5W5.0W6.0L5.5L6.2L7.4L7.1L6.0L2018-112020-052022-052025-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Smith · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W5.3W6.4W2025-022025-082026-03
WinLossTrend

Morales · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Colby ThicknesseRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Raul Rosas Jr.Rating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Elijah SmithRating 7.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Taylor LapilusRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · Dec · R3
Miles JohnsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11

Smith · Last 3

W · Sub · R2
SuYoung YouRating 6.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Toshiomi KazamaRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Vince MoralesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02

News & Media

Vince Morales · Elijah Smith
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