METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues
Las Vegas, USA
15 Feb 2025
Bantamweight
VS
32%
Morales
68%
Smith
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Elijah SmithwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Vince Morales · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Smith
→
Actual result
Smith wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Smith holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Morales has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Morales's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MoralesSmith
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Morales
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+71"
35
Age
+24
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Morales
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
34.6
73.9
32.0
Performance Avg
66.9
37
Quality of Victory
45
30
Momentum Score
100
Morales
Smith
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
5.3
/ 10
3.1
Style: Pressure
7.7
5.8
Style: Volume
4.7
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
15
4
Body
1
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
15Distance18
2Clinch2
0Ground0
Morales
Smith
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Morales
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
100
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/27 fights
Chin rating based on
3/11 fights
Morales
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
100
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Morales
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Morales
Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
MoralesSmith
Strike Zones
Morales
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedSmith
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Morales targets the head (76% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (75% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Morales
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
Morales · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Colby ThicknesseDecision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Raul Rosas Jr.Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Elijah SmithDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Taylor LapilusDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · Dec · R3
Miles JohnsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11
Smith · Last 3
W · Sub · R2
SuYoung YouSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Toshiomi KazamaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Vince MoralesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02