METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues
Las Vegas, USA
15 Feb 2025
Bantamweight
VS
32%
Morales
68%
Smith
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Elijah SmithwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Vince Morales · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Smith
→
Actual result
Smith wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Smith holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Morales has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smith has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Morales's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MoralesSmith
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Morales
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+71"
35
Age
+23
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Morales
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
34.6
73.9
32.0
Performance Avg
66.9
37
Quality of Victory
45
30
Momentum Score
100
Morales
Smith
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
2.8
38%
Strike Accuracy
60%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
15
4
Body
1
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
15Distance18
2Clinch2
0Ground0
Morales
Smith
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
1.2
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Morales
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
100
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/27 fights
Chin rating based on
3/11 fights
Morales
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
100
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Morales
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Morales
Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
MoralesSmith
Strike Zones
Morales
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedSmith
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Morales targets the head (76% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (75% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Morales
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
Morales · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Morales · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Colby ThicknesseRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Raul Rosas Jr.Rating 7.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Elijah SmithRating 7.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Taylor LapilusRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · Dec · R3
Miles JohnsRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11
Smith · Last 3
W · Sub · R2
SuYoung YouRating 6.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Toshiomi KazamaRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Vince MoralesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02