UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Toronto, Canada
10 Dec 2016
Middleweight
VS
30%
Kennedy
70%
Gastelum
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:45
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gastelum
Gastelum is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Gastelum throws more volume but Kennedy connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Kennedy's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gastelum has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Kennedy
Gastelum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
74"+
Reach
71"
46
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Kennedy
Gastelum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.9
41.4
48.0
Performance Avg
47.4
40
Quality of Victory
42
70
Momentum Score
28
Kennedy
Gastelum
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.3
45%
Strike Accuracy
43%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
25
3
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance29
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Kennedy
Gastelum
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kennedy
Gastelum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
38
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/24 fights
Chin rating based on
26/32 fights
Kennedy
Gastelum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
70
28
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Kennedy
Gastelum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
36%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kennedy
Gastelum
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
KennedyGastelum
Strike Zones
Kennedy
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedGastelum
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kennedy targets the head (67% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Gastelum targets the head (86% of attacks) — Kennedy absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kennedy
RND
Gastelum
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Kennedy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Gastelum · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Kennedy · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R5
Michael BispingRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · 2014-04
W · KO · R1
Rafael NatalRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Roger GracieRating 4.5Decision
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · 2013-07
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12