UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen
San Antonio, USA
25 Mar 2023
Welterweight
VS
55%
Giles
45%
Parsons
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Giles
This is a genuine toss-up — Giles at 55% vs Parsons at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Giles has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Parsons throws more volume but Giles connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Giles's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Parsons has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Giles
Parsons
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
71"
33
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Giles
Parsons
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.6
32.2
41.9
Performance Avg
28.3
36
Quality of Victory
25
72
Momentum Score
50
Giles
Parsons
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.6
55%
Strike Accuracy
53%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
8
1
Body
1
0
Leg
6
RangeRange
13Distance13
4Clinch2
6Ground0
Giles
Parsons
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Giles
Parsons
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/23 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Giles
Parsons
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
50
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Giles
Parsons
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Giles
Parsons
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
GilesParsons
Strike Zones
Giles
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedParsons
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Giles targets the head (96% of attacks) — Parsons absorbs 96% of strikes there
🎯Parsons targets the head (53% of attacks) — Giles absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Giles
RND
Parsons
0/0R00/0
Giles · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Parsons · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Giles · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mike MalottRating 7.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Carlos PratesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Sub · R1
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UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
Preston ParsonsRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Louis CosceRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · 2022-09
Parsons · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jacobe SmithRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Oban ElliottRating 6.2Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Matthew SemelsbergerRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · Dec · R3
Trevin GilesRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Evan ElderRating 5.1Decision
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