METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Jacksonville, USA
9 May 2020
Featherweight
VS
75%
Mitchell
25%
Rosa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Bryce MitchellwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Charles Rosa · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Mitchell
→
Actual result
Mitchell wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Mitchell is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Mitchell's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rosa has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MitchellRosa
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Mitchell
Rosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"+
Reach
69"
31+
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Mitchell
Rosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.3
19.4
50.2
Performance Avg
36.3
32
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
20
Mitchell
Rosa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
4.4
Style: Pressure
4.0
7.1
Style: Volume
5.6
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
1
5
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
12Ground0
Mitchell
Rosa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
4.6
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.3
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mitchell
Rosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/22 fights
Chin rating based on
13/22 fights
Mitchell
Rosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
20
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Mitchell
Rosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mitchell
Rosa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.3
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.0
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
MitchellRosa
Strike Zones
Mitchell
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedRosa
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mitchell targets the head (58% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Rosa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Mitchell absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mitchell
RND
Rosa
0/0R00/0
Mitchell · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
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L · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
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