UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Jacksonville, USA
9 May 2020
Featherweight
VS
74%
Mitchell
26%
Rosa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mitchell
Mitchell is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Rosa throws more volume but Mitchell connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Mitchell's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rosa has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Mitchell
Rosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"+
Reach
69"
31+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Mitchell
Rosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.7
19.4
48.6
Performance Avg
36.3
31
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
20
Mitchell
Rosa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
0.8
55%
Strike Accuracy
36%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
1
5
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
12Ground0
Mitchell
Rosa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.6
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mitchell
Rosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/22 fights
Chin rating based on
13/22 fights
Mitchell
Rosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
20
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Mitchell
Rosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mitchell
Rosa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.3
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.0
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
MitchellRosa
Strike Zones
Mitchell
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedRosa
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mitchell targets the head (58% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Rosa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Mitchell absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mitchell
RND
Rosa
0/0R00/0
Mitchell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Rosa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Mitchell · Last 5
Upcoming
Victor HenryUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R2
Jean SilvaRating 4.3Submission
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R3
Kron GracieRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Josh EmmettRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Rosa · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · Dec · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
L · Dec · R3
Damon JacksonRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · 2021-10
W · Dec · R3
Justin JaynesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Darrick MinnerRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02