METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Sioux Falls, USA
13 Jul 2016
Middleweight
VS
59%
Clark
41%
Nicholson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:57
★ Official Result
Alex NicholsonwinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:57
def. Devin Clark · UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Clark
→
Actual result
Nicholson wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Clark at 59% vs Nicholson at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nicholson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 32 points.
Risk flags
Clark's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nicholson has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ClarkNicholson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Clark
Nicholson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+77"
36
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Clark
Nicholson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.9
16.7
35.7
Performance Avg
46.0
28
Quality of Victory
60
43
Momentum Score
22
Clark
Nicholson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.2
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
2.3
Style: Pressure
7.8
7.9
Style: Volume
0.5
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
6
7
Body
5
0
Leg
7
RangeRange
8Distance12
3Clinch3
3Ground3
Clark
Nicholson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Clark
Nicholson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/23 fights
Chin rating based on
4/11 fights
Clark
Nicholson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
22
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Clark
Nicholson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Clark
Nicholson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
ClarkNicholson
Strike Zones
Clark
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedNicholson
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Clark targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nicholson absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Nicholson targets the legs (39% of attacks) — Clark absorbs 39% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Clark
RND
Nicholson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Clark · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Marcin PrachnioDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Da Woon JungDecision
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L · KO · R3
Azamat MurzakanovKO/TKO
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W · KO · R3
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Nicholson · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Jack HermanssonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Devin ClarkKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07
L · Sub · R2
Misha CirkunovSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02