UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Sioux Falls, USA
13 Jul 2016
Middleweight
VS
63%
Clark
37%
Nicholson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:57
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Clark
Clark holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Nicholson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nicholson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 32 points.
Striking split: Nicholson throws more volume but Clark connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Clark's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nicholson has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Clark
Nicholson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+77"
36
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Clark
Nicholson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.7
16.7
35.7
Performance Avg
46.0
28
Quality of Victory
60
43
Momentum Score
22
Clark
Nicholson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.8
54%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
6
7
Body
5
0
Leg
7
RangeRange
8Distance12
3Clinch3
3Ground3
Clark
Nicholson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Clark
Nicholson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/23 fights
Chin rating based on
4/11 fights
Clark
Nicholson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
22
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Clark
Nicholson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Clark
Nicholson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
ClarkNicholson
Strike Zones
Clark
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedNicholson
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Clark targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nicholson absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Nicholson targets the legs (39% of attacks) — Clark absorbs 39% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Clark
RND
Nicholson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Clark · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Nicholson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Clark · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Marcin PrachnioRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Sub · R2
Kennedy NzechukwuRating 4Submission
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · Dec · R3
Da Woon JungRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · 2023-02
L · KO · R3
Azamat MurzakanovRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · 2022-08
W · KO · R3
William KnightRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · 2022-04
Nicholson · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Jack HermanssonRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Devin ClarkRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07
L · Sub · R2
Misha CirkunovRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02