UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
Seattle, USA
22 Feb 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
43%
Cutelaba
57%
Aslan
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:51
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Aslan
This is a genuine toss-up — Cutelaba at 43% vs Aslan at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aslan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Cutelaba's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Aslan has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cutelaba
Aslan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+77"
32
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Cutelaba
Aslan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.5
53.7
47.1
Performance Avg
49.0
47
Quality of Victory
55
26
Momentum Score
46
Cutelaba
Aslan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.8
45%
Strike Accuracy
53%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
14
2
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance12
1Clinch3
3Ground0
Cutelaba
Aslan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.2
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cutelaba
Aslan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/31 fights
Chin rating based on
5/18 fights
Cutelaba
Aslan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
46
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Cutelaba
Aslan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cutelaba
Aslan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
CutelabaAslan
Strike Zones
Cutelaba
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedAslan
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cutelaba targets the head (71% of attacks) — Aslan absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Aslan targets the head (93% of attacks) — Cutelaba absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cutelaba
RND
Aslan
0/0R00/0
Cutelaba · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Aslan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Cutelaba · Last 5
Upcoming
Navajo StirlingUFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Sub · R1
Oumar SyRating 6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Modestas BukauskasRating 6.3Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Sub · R1
Ibo AslanRating 5.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Ivan ErslanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
Aslan · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Iwo BaraniewskiRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Billy ElekanaRating 7.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R1
Ion CutelabaRating 1.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · KO · R1
Rafael CerqueiraRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R3
Anton TurkaljRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03