UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
11 Jul 2020
Women's Bantamweight
VS
83%
Rosa
17%
Melo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Karol
Karol Rosa
19 – 7
5'5"67" reachOrthodox31 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 49
VM
Vanessa Melo
11 – 8
Well-Rounded38 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'5"
CFR 10

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rosa

Rosa is a strong favourite at 83% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Rosa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Rosa
Melo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
5'5"
67"+
Reach
65"
31+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rosa
Melo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.8
10.3
41.7
Performance Avg
25.0
25
Quality of Victory
25
80
Momentum Score
28
Rosa
Melo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.4
57%
Strike Accuracy
36%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
12
4
Body
4
6
Leg
11
RangeRange
33Distance25
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Rosa
Melo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rosa
Melo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
92
94
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/26 fights
Chin rating based on
4/19 fights
Rosa
Melo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
28
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Rosa
Melo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rosa
Melo
Striking1.3 / 0.5Volume9.3 / 8.5Grappling2.4 / 2.4Wrestling1.7 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure2.0 / 0.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
9.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Rosa
Strike Zones
Melo
Rosa
Attacking
23HEAD4BODY6LEGS33 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD4BODY11LEGS27 absorbed
Melo
Attacking
12HEAD4BODY11LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD4BODY6LEGS33 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rosa targets the head (70% of attacks) — Melo absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Melo targets the head (44% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rosa
RND
Melo
0/0R00/0

Rosa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W4.5W5.9W4.5W5.5L4.5W6.0L4.6W6.3L4.5W6.5L5.2W2019-082021-102023-042024-082025-08
WinLossTrend

Melo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0106.3L6.2L6.2L4.5W2019-092019-112020-072021-01
WinLossTrend

Rosa · Last 5

Upcoming
Luana Santos
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Nora CornolleRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Ailin PerezRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Pannie KianzadRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Irene AldanaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

Melo · Last 4

W · Dec · R3
Sarah MorasRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Karol RosaRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Tracy CortezRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · Dec · R3
Irene AldanaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09

News & Media

Karol Rosa · Vanessa Melo
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