METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
Miami, USA
12 Apr 2025
Featherweight
VS
53%
Elkins
47%
Erosa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:15
★ Official Result
Julian ErosawinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:15
def. Darren Elkins · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Elkins
→
Actual result
Erosa wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Elkins at 53% vs Erosa at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Elkins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Erosa has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ElkinsErosa
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Elkins
Erosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
71"
Reach
+74"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Elkins
Erosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.3
39.6
45.5
Performance Avg
46.2
35
Quality of Victory
44
66
Momentum Score
26
Elkins
Erosa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
4.4
Style: Pressure
6.2
6.3
Style: Volume
3.7
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
52
1
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
12Distance22
0Clinch11
1Ground21
Elkins
Erosa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.8
/ 10
4.4
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
1.6
Submission Style (/10)
4.4
3
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Elkins
Erosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
7
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.4 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
31/41 fights
Chin rating based on
18/45 fights
Elkins
Erosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
26
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Elkins
Erosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
37%
67%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
4
12
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Elkins
Erosa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
1.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
ElkinsErosa
Strike Zones
Elkins
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
54 absorbedErosa
Attacking
54 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Elkins targets the head (85% of attacks) — Erosa absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Erosa targets the head (96% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 96% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Elkins
RND
Erosa
0/0R00/0
Elkins · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Yadier del ValleKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld · 2026-08
L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaKO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceDecision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
Erosa · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Lerryan DouglasKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Melquizael CostaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Darren ElkinsKO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Christian RodriguezSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Sub · R1
Ricardo RamosSubmission
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