UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
Miami, USA
12 Apr 2025
Featherweight
VS
53%
Elkins
47%
Erosa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:15
Darren
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29 – 12
5'10"71" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Julian
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
31 – 14
Well-Rounded2-fight slide36 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'1"
CFR 40

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Elkins

This is a genuine toss-up — Elkins at 53% vs Erosa at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Erosa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Elkins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Erosa has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Elkins
Erosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
71"
Reach
+74"
42
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Elkins
Erosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.7
39.6
46.3
Performance Avg
46.2
35
Quality of Victory
44
66
Momentum Score
26
Elkins
Erosa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.5
38%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
52
1
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
12Distance22
0Clinch11
1Ground21
Elkins
Erosa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.4
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Elkins
Erosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
7
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.4 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/41 fights
Chin rating based on
18/45 fights
Elkins
Erosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
26
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Elkins
Erosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
37%
67%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
4
12
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Elkins
Erosa
Striking3.4 / 3.2Volume6.3 / 3.7Grappling2.8 / 4.4Wrestling1.9 / 3.0Submission1.6 / 4.4Pressure4.5 / 6.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
1.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
Elkins
Strike Zones
Erosa
Elkins
Attacking
11HEAD1BODY1LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
52HEAD0BODY2LEGS54 absorbed
Erosa
Attacking
52HEAD0BODY2LEGS54 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD1BODY1LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Elkins targets the head (85% of attacks) — Erosa absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Erosa targets the head (96% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 96% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Elkins
RND
Erosa
0/0R00/0

Elkins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W2.9L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.3W7.0L4.0L5.5L6.2L5.5W5.2W2.0L4.5W6.0L5.5W5.4W1.7L2010-032013-082017-072021-122025-04
WinLossTrend

Erosa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W2.8L1.5L7.0L4.7L6.6W5.7W1.7L6.3W4.5W4.6W1.7L2.8L5.1W5.6W5.5W6.7L3.9L2015-122020-062022-092025-042026-03
WinLossTrend

Elkins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04

Erosa · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Lerryan DouglasRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Melquizael CostaRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Darren ElkinsRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Christian RodriguezRating 5.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Sub · R1
Ricardo RamosRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03

News & Media

Darren Elkins · Julian Erosa
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