UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad
Las Vegas, USA
16 Apr 2022
Lightweight
VS
95%
Garcia
5%
Ronson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:50
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Garcia
Garcia is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 48 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Garcia has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 32 points.
Ronson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ronson has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Garcia
Ronson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
70"
31+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Garcia
Ronson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.6
2.6
44.7
Performance Avg
0.0
32
Quality of Victory
0
75
Momentum Score
0
Garcia
Ronson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.6
47%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
0
0
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch0
8Ground0
Garcia
Ronson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Garcia
Ronson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
60
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/23 fights
Chin rating based on
6/33 fights
Garcia
Ronson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
0
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Garcia
Ronson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Garcia
Ronson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
GarciaRonson
Strike Zones
Garcia
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedRonson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Garcia targets the head (89% of attacks) — Ronson absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Ronson targets the body (50% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Garcia
RND
Ronson
0/0R00/0
Garcia · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Ronson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Garcia · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Vinc PichelRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Grant DawsonRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
Ronson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Joaquim SilvaRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
L · Sub · R2
Rafa GarciaRating 3.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · 2022-04
Upcoming
Nicolas DalbyUFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Kevin LeeRating 5.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · 2014-07
L · Dec · R3
Francisco TrinaldoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · 2014-02