UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland
Las Vegas, USA
10 Apr 2021
Women's Strawweight
VS
30%
Nunes
70%
Dern
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:48
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dern
Dern is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Dern has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Nunes throws more volume but Dern connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Nunes
Dern
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'4"
64"+
Reach
63"
40
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nunes
Dern
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.7
59.6
39.6
Performance Avg
51.1
29
Quality of Victory
39
70
Momentum Score
94
Nunes
Dern
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.2
44%
Strike Accuracy
44%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
10
1
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Nunes
Dern
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.0
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nunes
Dern
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
82
70
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/18 fights
Chin rating based on
16/21 fights
Nunes
Dern
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
70
94
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Nunes
Dern
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
46%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
5
4
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nunes
Dern
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.0
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.5
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.5
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
7.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
NunesDern
Strike Zones
Nunes
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedDern
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nunes targets the head (50% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Dern targets the head (83% of attacks) — Nunes absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nunes
RND
Dern
0/0R00/0
Nunes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Dern · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Nunes · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Cynthia CalvilloRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · 2022-08
L · Sub · R1
Mackenzie DernRating 2.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · Dec · R3
Tatiana SuarezRating 7.4Decision
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Claudia GadelhaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Randa MarkosRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
Dern · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaRating 5.2Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 6.6Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Jessica AndradeRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11