METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland
Las Vegas, USA
10 Apr 2021
Women's Strawweight
VS
30%
Nunes
70%
Dern
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:48
★ Official Result
Mackenzie DernwinsSubmissionR1 · 4:48
def. Nina Nunes · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Dern
→
Actual result
Dern wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Dern is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Dern has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NunesDern
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nunes
Dern
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'4"
64"+
Reach
63"
40
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nunes
Dern
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.7
60.4
39.6
Performance Avg
52.7
29
Quality of Victory
41
70
Momentum Score
94
Nunes
Dern
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
3.1
Style: Pressure
5.0
7.5
Style: Volume
6.1
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
10
1
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Nunes
Dern
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
4.7
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.3
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.2
1
Submission wins
5
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nunes
Dern
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
82
70
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/18 fights
Chin rating based on
17/21 fights
Nunes
Dern
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
70
94
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Nunes
Dern
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
42%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
5
4
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nunes
Dern
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.7
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.3
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.2
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
7.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
NunesDern
Strike Zones
Nunes
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedDern
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nunes targets the head (50% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Dern targets the head (83% of attacks) — Nunes absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nunes
RND
Dern
0/0R00/0
Nunes · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Cynthia CalvilloDecision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · 2022-08
L · Sub · R1
Mackenzie DernSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · Dec · R3
Tatiana SuarezDecision
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Claudia GadelhaDecision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Randa MarkosDecision
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
Dern · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Gillian RobertsonDecision
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08
W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaDecision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosDecision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02