UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
Las Vegas, USA
4 Feb 2012
Featherweight
VS
52%
Poirier
48%
Holloway
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:23
Dustin
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30 – 10
5'9"72" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 61
Max
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
27 – 9
Well-Rounded34 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'11"
CFR 56

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Poirier

This is a genuine toss-up — Poirier at 52% vs Holloway at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Holloway throws more volume but Poirier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Holloway has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Poirier
Holloway
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
72"+
Reach
69"
37
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Poirier
Holloway
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
56.2
58.2
Performance Avg
56.8
50
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
63
Poirier
Holloway
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.2
54%
Strike Accuracy
52%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
10 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
8
0
Body
2
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance11
2Clinch0
2Ground0
Poirier
Holloway
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.2
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
1.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.9
4
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Poirier
Holloway
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/40 fights
Chin rating based on
33/36 fights
Poirier
Holloway
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
63
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Poirier
Holloway
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
52%
10
KO / TKO Wins
10
4
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
11

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Poirier
Holloway
Striking6.0 / 5.8Volume4.0 / 4.9Grappling2.2 / 1.7Wrestling1.6 / 1.2Submission1.8 / 0.9Pressure6.6 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Poirier
Strike Zones
Holloway
Poirier
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY5LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Holloway
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY5LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (55% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Holloway targets the head (73% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 73% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Poirier
RND
Holloway
0/0R00/0

Poirier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.2W6.1W3.9L5.0W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W3.5L6.0W5.0W4.5W5.7W1.6L4.9W5.2W6.9W5.1W5.6W2.8L5.4W7.1W6.0W4.2L6.3W3.7L6.9W6.0L6.6L2011-012013-122017-022021-072025-07
WinLossTrend

Holloway · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0102.8L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L7.5L5.2W6.2W5.5W5.0W4.5W6.0W6.4W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.7W5.7W5.7W6.8L4.5W7.0L7.0L5.0W6.1W7.0L5.9W5.7W7.1W5.1L5.8W6.9L2012-022014-082017-062021-112026-03
WinLossTrend

Poirier · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11

Holloway · Last 5

Upcoming
Conor McGregor
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1
KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

News & Media

Dustin Poirier · Max Holloway
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