METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
Sydney, Australia
9 Sept 2023
Featherweight
VS
45%
Jenkins
55%
Mariscal
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:19
★ Official Result
Chepe MariscalwinsKO/TKOR2 · 3:19
def. Jack Jenkins · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Mariscal
→
Actual result
Mariscal wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Jenkins at 45% vs Mariscal at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Jenkins's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
JenkinsMariscal
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Jenkins
Mariscal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
68"
Reach
+69"
32+
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Jenkins
Mariscal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.1
56.9
41.6
Performance Avg
51.9
31
Quality of Victory
31
66
Momentum Score
80
Jenkins
Mariscal
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.6
/ 10
3.7
/ 10
3.5
Style: Pressure
3.9
7.1
Style: Volume
8.1
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
4
6
Body
3
2
Leg
8
RangeRange
6Distance5
4Clinch9
0Ground1
Jenkins
Mariscal
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
/ 10
1.9
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jenkins
Mariscal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/18 fights
Chin rating based on
6/25 fights
Jenkins
Mariscal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
80
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Jenkins
Mariscal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
20%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jenkins
Mariscal
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
JenkinsMariscal
Strike Zones
Jenkins
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedMariscal
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jenkins targets the body (60% of attacks) — Mariscal absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Mariscal targets the legs (53% of attacks) — Jenkins absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jenkins
RND
Mariscal
0/0R00/0
Jenkins · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · 2026-08
W · Dec · R3
Ramon TaverasDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · Sub · R3
Gabriel SantosSubmission
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · KO · R3
Herbert BurnsKO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Chepe MariscalKO/TKO
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Mariscal · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Pat SabatiniDecision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Ricardo RamosDecision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Damon JacksonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Morgan CharriereDecision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Jack JenkinsKO/TKO
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09