UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
Sydney, Australia
9 Sept 2023
Featherweight
VS
47%
Jenkins
53%
Mariscal
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:19
Jack
Jack Jenkins
"Phar"
14 – 4
5'7"68" reachSwitch32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 51
Chepe
Chepe Mariscal
"Machine Gun"
18 – 7
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'7"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Mariscal

This is a genuine toss-up — Jenkins at 47% vs Mariscal at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Mariscal throws more volume but Jenkins connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Jenkins's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Jenkins
Mariscal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
68"
Reach
+69"
32+
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Jenkins
Mariscal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.3
56.9
45.4
Performance Avg
51.9
31
Quality of Victory
31
81
Momentum Score
80
Jenkins
Mariscal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.3
61%
Strike Accuracy
55%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
4
6
Body
3
2
Leg
8
RangeRange
6Distance5
4Clinch9
0Ground1
Jenkins
Mariscal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jenkins
Mariscal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/18 fights
Chin rating based on
6/25 fights
Jenkins
Mariscal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
80
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Jenkins
Mariscal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
20%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Jenkins
Mariscal
Striking3.8 / 3.7Volume7.3 / 8.1Grappling1.8 / 1.9Wrestling1.3 / 1.3Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.8 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
Jenkins
Strike Zones
Mariscal
Jenkins
Attacking
2HEAD6BODY2LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD3BODY8LEGS15 absorbed
Mariscal
Attacking
4HEAD3BODY8LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD6BODY2LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Jenkins targets the body (60% of attacks) — Mariscal absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Mariscal targets the legs (53% of attacks) — Jenkins absorbs 53% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Jenkins
RND
Mariscal
0/0R00/0

Jenkins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W5.0W3.8L5.9W4.7L4.5W2023-022023-062023-092024-082025-022025-09
WinLossTrend

Mariscal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.8W6.1W5.7W4.8W4.6W6.5L2023-062023-092024-042024-082025-032025-11
WinLossTrend

Jenkins · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Ramon TaverasRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · Sub · R3
Gabriel SantosRating 4.7
Submission
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · KO · R3
Herbert BurnsRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Chepe MariscalRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
W · Dec · R3
Jamall EmmersRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06

Mariscal · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Pat SabatiniRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Ricardo RamosRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Damon JacksonRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Morgan CharriereRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Jack JenkinsRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09

News & Media

Jack Jenkins · Chepe Mariscal
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