UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Calgary, Canada
28 Jul 2018
Flyweight
VS
31%
Ortiz
69%
Nicolau
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:49
DO
Dustin Ortiz
19 – 8
5'5"65" reachOrthodox37 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 17
Matheus
Matheus Nicolau
19 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide33 yrsOrthodox66" reach5'6"
CFR 38

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nicolau

Nicolau holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Ortiz has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Ortiz throws more volume but Nicolau connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Nicolau has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ortiz
Nicolau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'6"
65"
Reach
+66"
37
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ortiz
Nicolau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.2
38.0
47.8
Performance Avg
44.7
42
Quality of Victory
32
45
Momentum Score
49
Ortiz
Nicolau
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.1
43%
Strike Accuracy
52%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
0
Body
2
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
5Distance7
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Ortiz
Nicolau
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ortiz
Nicolau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
32
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/27 fights
Chin rating based on
11/25 fights
Ortiz
Nicolau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
49
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Ortiz
Nicolau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
29%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ortiz
Nicolau
Striking6.1 / 2.7Volume5.1 / 7.0Grappling1.2 / 2.9Wrestling0.8 / 2.0Submission0.0 / 1.4Pressure5.2 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
Ortiz
Strike Zones
Nicolau
Ortiz
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY2LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY3LEGS7 absorbed
Nicolau
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY3LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY2LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ortiz targets the head (75% of attacks) — Nicolau absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Nicolau targets the legs (43% of attacks) — Ortiz absorbs 43% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ortiz
RND
Nicolau
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ortiz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W3.6L5.0W5.8W5.2W5.5L2013-112014-112016-122018-072019-01
WinLossTrend

Nicolau · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L6.2W4.6W4.5W5.4W2.3L3.4L6.6L2015-112018-072022-032024-042024-10
WinLossTrend

Ortiz · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Joseph BenavidezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
W · KO · R1
Matheus NicolauRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Alexandre PantojaRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
W · KO · R1
Hector SandovalRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Sub · R2
Brandon MorenoRating 3.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04

Nicolau · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Alex PerezRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Brandon RoyvalRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · KO · R2
Matt SchnellRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
David DvorakRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03

News & Media

Dustin Ortiz · Matheus Nicolau
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