UFC 99: The Comeback
Cologne, Germany
13 Jun 2009
Heavyweight
VS
55%
Velasquez
45%
Kongo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Velasquez
This is a genuine toss-up — Velasquez at 55% vs Kongo at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Velasquez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Striking split: Velasquez throws more volume but Kongo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Velasquez's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kongo has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Velasquez
Kongo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
77"
Reach
+82"
43+
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Velasquez
Kongo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.8
20.9
69.4
Performance Avg
51.8
62
Quality of Victory
43
100
Momentum Score
100
Velasquez
Kongo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
1.7
59%
Strike Accuracy
63%
9.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
10 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
3
1
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance2
1Clinch5
8Ground0
Velasquez
Kongo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.4
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Velasquez
Kongo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
38
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/17 fights
Chin rating based on
18/37 fights
Velasquez
Kongo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Velasquez
Kongo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
55%
10
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Velasquez
Kongo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
VelasquezKongo
Strike Zones
Velasquez
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedKongo
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Velasquez targets the head (89% of attacks) — Kongo absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Kongo targets the body (57% of attacks) — Velasquez absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Velasquez
RND
Kongo
0/0R00/0
Velasquez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Kongo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Velasquez · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Francis NgannouRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R1
Travis BrowneRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
L · Sub · R3
Fabricio WerdumRating 2.8Submission
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · KO · R5
Junior Dos SantosRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
W · KO · R1
Antonio SilvaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · 2013-05
Kongo · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Roy NelsonRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
W · Dec · R3
Shawn JordanRating 4.5Decision
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
L · KO · R1
Mark HuntRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson · 2012-02
W · Dec · R3
Matt MitrioneRating 4.5Decision
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · 2011-10
W · KO · R1
Pat BarryRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06