UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
New York City, USA
4 Nov 2017
Middleweight
VS
24%
Hendricks
76%
Costa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:23
JH
Johny Hendricks
"Bigg Rigg"
18 – 8
5'9"69" reachSouthpaw42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 18
Paulo
Paulo Costa
"The Eraser"
16 – 4
Striker2-fight win streak35 yrsOrthodox72" reach6'1"
CFR 55

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Costa

Costa is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Costa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hendricks's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hendricks
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'1"
69"
Reach
+72"
42
Age
+35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Hendricks
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.8
55.3
48.2
Performance Avg
52.9
39
Quality of Victory
44
80
Momentum Score
59
Hendricks
Costa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.9
49%
Strike Accuracy
59%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.6
5 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
15
0
Body
5
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance17
0Clinch2
0Ground1
Hendricks
Costa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.9
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hendricks
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
72
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/26 fights
Chin rating based on
12/20 fights
Hendricks
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Hendricks
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
63%
5
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hendricks
Costa
Striking5.1 / 7.6Volume6.2 / 4.3Grappling1.5 / 0.9Wrestling1.0 / 0.6Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.5 / 6.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.6
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
Hendricks
Strike Zones
Costa
Hendricks
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY3LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD5BODY0LEGS20 absorbed
Costa
Attacking
15HEAD5BODY0LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY3LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hendricks targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the head (75% of attacks) — Hendricks absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hendricks
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Hendricks · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W4.5W4.5W5.2W5.5L5.0W4.5W5.0W4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L4.8W5.8L4.9W2.1L5.8L6.1L4.5W2.8L3.8L2009-082011-082014-032017-022017-11
WinLossTrend

Costa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.0W5.2W5.2W5.2W4.5W3.5L6.3L4.5W6.4L6.6L5.5W7.4W2017-032018-072021-102024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Hendricks · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Paulo CostaRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · 2017-11
L · KO · R2
Tim BoetschRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Hector LombardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · 2017-02
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07

Costa · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Azamat MurzakanovRating 7.4
KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
W · Dec · R3
Luke RockholdRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08

News & Media

Johny Hendricks · Paulo Costa
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