UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez
Las Vegas, USA
27 Apr 2024
Lightweight
VS
8%
Llontop
92%
Padilla
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:33
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Padilla
Padilla is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 65 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Padilla has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Striking split: Llontop throws more volume but Padilla connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Llontop
Padilla
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
73"
Reach
+74"
26+
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Llontop
Padilla
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
6.0
70.9
0.0
Performance Avg
64.2
0
Quality of Victory
40
0
Momentum Score
100
Llontop
Padilla
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.3
3.2
43%
Strike Accuracy
54%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
6
2
Body
1
10
Leg
5
RangeRange
19Distance9
0Clinch2
0Ground1
Llontop
Padilla
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Llontop
Padilla
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
100
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/19 fights
Chin rating based on
5/23 fights
Llontop
Padilla
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
W · Sub · R1
Llontop
Padilla
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Llontop
Padilla
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
LlontopPadilla
Strike Zones
Llontop
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedPadilla
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Llontop targets the legs (53% of attacks) — Padilla absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Padilla targets the head (50% of attacks) — Llontop absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Llontop
RND
Padilla
0/0R00/0
Llontop · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Padilla · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Llontop · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuffyRating 7.2Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Chris PadillaRating 3.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
Padilla · Last 5
Upcoming
MarQuel MederosDecision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R2
Ismael BonfimRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jai HerbertRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · R2
RongzhuRating 4.7UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · Sub · R1
James LlontopRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04